Accuracy
Our report card
Every FPL tool claims to be AI-powered. None of them will tell you how often they are right. This page is our attempt at the opposite: each recommendation is written down before the deadline, scored once the gameweek finishes, and published here whether it flatters us or not.
9 gameweeks logged, 8 counted. 1 could not be fully scored. Excluded weeks stay in the log; they simply do not count.
Live record
Live2026/27· 8 gameweeks scoredCaptain hit rate75%Our pick finished top 3 of the shortlist we published
Captain regret10.8 ptsPoints behind the best captain in hindsight, doubled
Transfer hit rate25%Suggested transfer ended up net positive
Transfer optimism+3.21 ptsPredicted gain minus what actually landed
Differential hit rate0%Returned 6+ points
xP error2.14 ptsMean absolute error per player prediction
Skill vs naive20.6%Error reduction against repeating last gameweek's points
Worst calibration gap15.0 ppLargest predicted-minus-observed miss across bands
Calibration
When we say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?
Where it went wrong
The two ends of the range, so the averages above have something to sit against.
Worst captain weekGW9 · Haaland2 pts, best available was 7 (Manzambi)rank 5 of 10
Best captain weekGW2 · Haaland13 pts, best available was 23 (B.Fernandes)rank 3 of 10
Against FPL's own projection
FPL publishes its own expected points. Ours has to beat it or it has earned nothing - so both errors are shown, on the same players, in the same weeks.
FPList error
2.14
FPL's own error
2.30
Offline backtest
Backtest2025/26· 38 gameweeks scoredThis is a backtest, not a record. It replays 2025/26 offline with the model as it stands today. It is useful for spotting bias and miscalibration, and it is not evidence of live performance - nothing here was published before a deadline.
Captain hit rate34%Our pick finished top 3 of the shortlist we published
Captain regret5.4 ptsPoints behind the best captain in hindsight, doubled
Transfer hit rate79%Suggested transfer ended up net positive
Transfer optimism+1.08 ptsPredicted gain minus what actually landed
Differential hit rate42%Returned 6+ points
xP error1.77 ptsMean absolute error per player prediction
Skill vs naive27.9%Error reduction against repeating last gameweek's points
Worst calibration gap9.0 ppLargest predicted-minus-observed miss across bands
Calibration
When we say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?
Where it went wrong
The two ends of the range, so the averages above have something to sit against.
Worst captain weekGW13 · Minteh5 pts, best available was 8 (Rogers)rank 10 of 10
Best captain weekGW31 · Marmoush21 pts, best available was 22 (Senesi)rank 2 of 10
Every gameweek· Live record
The full log, losing weeks included. Selective disclosure would make the whole page worthless.
| GW | Our captain | xP | Actual | Rank | Best available | Transfer pred | Transfer actual | Diff pts | xP error | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Haaland | 6.8 | 13 | 3/10 | B.Fernandes (23) | +0.9 | -9.0 | 1 | 2.01 | Transfer cost points |
| 3 | Haaland | 7.7 | 9 | 2/10 | Isak (13) | -0.1 | -1.0 | 2 | 2.04 | Transfer cost points |
| 4 | Haaland | 6.8 | 9 | 2/10 | João Pedro (12) | -0.6 | -11.0 | 3 | 2.29 | Transfer cost points |
| 5 | Haaland | 7.9 | 6 | 4/10 | Semenyo (17) | +0.2 | -1.0 | 1 | 2.24 | Transfer cost points |
| 6 | Haaland | 6.9 | 6 | 3/10 | De Cuyper (15) | +3.1 | +6.0 | 5 | 2.06 | |
| 7 | Haaland | 7.7 | 13 | 1/10 | Haaland (13) | +4.1 | +4.0 | 3 | 2.19 | |
| 8 | Haaland | 7.8 | 8 | 2/10 | Isak (9) | +0.6 | 0.0 | 2 | 2.26 | Differential blank |
| 9 | Haaland | 7.8 | 2 | 5/10 | Manzambi (7) | +1.5 | -4.0 | 2 | 2.05 | Transfer cost points |
Every gameweek· Offline backtest
The full log, losing weeks included. Selective disclosure would make the whole page worthless.
| GW | Our captain | xP | Actual | Rank | Best available | Transfer pred | Transfer actual | Diff pts | xP error | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinelli | 6.0 | 10 | 9/10 | Tavernier (14) | +2.0 | +1.9 | 8 | 1.94 | Captain miss |
| 2 | Barnes | 6.0 | 10 | 1/10 | Johnson (11) | +1.7 | -0.4 | 10 | 1.61 | Transfer cost points |
| 3 | Saka | 4.4 | 8 | 1/10 | Anderson (9) | +2.6 | +0.8 | 1 | 2.09 | Differential blank |
| 4 | Rayan | 5.8 | 16 | 2/10 | Minteh (17) | +1.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 1.37 | Differential blank |
| 5 | Watkins | 6.0 | 7 | 5/10 | Osula (10) | +2.5 | -0.3 | 2 | 1.85 | Transfer cost points |
| 6 | Gravenberch | 5.8 | 15 | 8/10 | Calvert-Lewin (20) | +2.6 | +0.7 | 3 | 1.41 | Captain miss |
| 7 | Estêvão | 6.7 | 15 | 10/10 | Neto (21) | +2.5 | +1.6 | 9 | 2.00 | Captain miss |
| 8 | Cunha | 4.6 | 16 | 1/10 | Scott (17) | +0.9 | -0.8 | 2 | 1.53 | Transfer cost points |
| 9 | Stach | 7.8 | 18 | 3/10 | Garnacho (20) | +2.9 | +1.0 | 4 | 1.97 | |
| 10 | Buendía | 7.3 | 19 | 1/10 | Grealish (20) | +2.2 | +3.1 | 1 | 1.90 | Differential blank |
| 11 | Tavernier | 7.6 | 13 | 7/10 | Woltemade (16) | +1.9 | +2.7 | 11 | 1.72 | Captain miss |
| 12 | O'Reilly | 5.3 | 6 | 10/10 | Hinshelwood (9) | +1.0 | -0.9 | 1 | 1.61 | Captain miss |
| 13 | Minteh | 8.3 | 5 | 10/10 | Rogers (8) | +1.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 2.12 | Captain miss |
| 14 | Gibbs-White | 8.1 | 13 | 6/10 | Garnacho (17) | +2.1 | +1.4 | 2 | 1.44 | Captain miss |
| 15 | Eze | 6.6 | 16 | 1/10 | Hinshelwood (18) | +1.3 | -0.2 | 8 | 1.46 | Transfer cost points |
| 16 | Cherki | 7.0 | 17 | 4/10 | Ndiaye (20) | +1.0 | -0.5 | 2 | 1.54 | Transfer cost points |
| 17 | Virgil | 4.9 | 10 | 7/10 | Rashford (13) | +1.2 | +0.8 | 4 | 1.59 | Captain miss |
| 18 | Estêvão | 5.8 | 9 | 6/10 | Brobbey (11) | +0.9 | +0.4 | 8 | 2.17 | Captain miss |
| 19 | Strand Larsen | 6.7 | 7 | 5/10 | Neto (9) | +3.0 | +0.7 | 1 | 2.10 | Differential blank |
| 20 | Rogers | 7.8 | 15 | 10/10 | Gakpo (20) | +1.2 | +0.2 | 2 | 1.49 | Captain miss |
| 21 | Ndiaye | 5.4 | 9 | 7/10 | J.Murphy (13) | +1.6 | +1.5 | 7 | 1.58 | Captain miss |
| 22 | Gibbs-White | 5.1 | 18 | 4/10 | Igor Jesus (20) | +2.9 | +0.2 | 17 | 1.62 | |
| 23 | Mateta | 4.4 | 13 | 3/10 | Wilson (15) | +2.5 | +0.9 | 3 | 2.01 | |
| 24 | Tarkowski | 7.8 | 12 | 8/10 | Gakpo (17) | +2.0 | +1.3 | 7 | 2.15 | Captain miss |
| 25 | Semenyo | 5.3 | 9 | 1/10 | Richarlison (10) | +2.3 | +1.6 | 2 | 1.70 | Differential blank |
| 26 | Virgil | 6.9 | 10 | 6/10 | O.Dango (13) | +2.9 | +0.8 | 0 | 1.77 | Captain miss |
| 27 | Bruno G. | 6.8 | 14 | 9/10 | Marmoush (19) | +1.9 | +1.0 | 8 | 1.73 | Captain miss |
| 28 | Osula | 8.5 | 7 | 3/10 | B.Fernandes (8) | +1.7 | +1.1 | 16 | 1.94 | |
| 29 | Richarlison | 5.6 | 17 | 5/10 | Doku (20) | +2.8 | +0.7 | 0 | 1.71 | Differential blank |
| 30 | Dorgu | 5.4 | 15 | 7/10 | Cherki (19) | +1.8 | -0.1 | 13 | 2.09 | Captain miss |
| 31 | Marmoush | 7.4 | 21 | 2/10 | Senesi (22) | +1.3 | 0.0 | 11 | 2.15 | |
| 32 | João Pedro | 4.2 | 14 | 4/10 | Cherki (16) | +2.2 | +1.4 | 11 | 1.79 | |
| 33 | Anderson | 5.3 | 17 | 1/10 | Foden (18) | +2.7 | +2.7 | 14 | 1.44 | |
| 34 | Strand Larsen | 4.4 | 7 | 1/10 | Wilson (8) | +1.3 | +0.8 | 2 | 2.04 | Differential blank |
| 35 | Šeško | 8.1 | 6 | 6/10 | Welbeck (8) | +0.8 | +0.6 | 5 | 1.57 | Captain miss |
| 36 | Ngumoha | 7.5 | 16 | 4/10 | J.Murphy (19) | +2.4 | +2.3 | 9 | 1.43 | |
| 37 | O'Reilly | 4.8 | 9 | 7/10 | Thiago (13) | +2.4 | +0.9 | 1 | 1.69 | Captain miss |
| 38 | Garnacho | 4.3 | 18 | 6/10 | Hudson-Odoi (22) | +1.7 | +1.8 | 4 | 2.01 | Captain miss |
How this is scored
- Captain hit
- Our pick finished in the top three of the ten-name shortlist we published that week. Not "top three in the game" - only against options we actually put our name to.
- Captain regret
- Points behind the best captain available in hindsight, doubled because the armband doubles. This is the number that hurts, so it stays on the page.
- Skill vs naive
- How much our expected-points error beats simply predicting a repeat of last gameweek. An error of 1.8 points means nothing on its own - only against a baseline anyone could build in a spreadsheet.
- Withholding
- Headline rates need 8 scored gameweeks; a calibration band needs 20 observations. Below that we print "withheld" and the shortfall rather than a number that would only mislead.
- Determinism
- Every figure comes from ordinary code over a timestamped log. A language model writes the words on this site; it never touches the numbers, and it never gets to grade our own homework.
- No backfilling
- The live log only ever grows forwards. If a week is missing it stays missing, because a record assembled after the results are known is not a record.
This page scores our squad calls. The fixture-level projections — result splits, both teams to score, clean sheets — are filed and scored on /predictions.
Last scored .