Picks

Who to own

Squad questions, no Team ID · projected for Gameweek 6 from public data · every number re-derived per fixture.

Two elevens under £100.0m

Same optimiser, two pools: everyone and ≤10% owned. Legal FPL rules — a heuristic, not proven optimal.

Differential eleven costs you 11.9 projected points (61.1 vs 49.2, Gameweek 6, 26%→4% owned). Rank chase vs protection is yours. In both: Maitland-Niles.

Every player

Best eleven

Projected: 61.1
Cost: £86.9m
Avg owned: 26%
Shape: 3-5-2

PitchList

The number on each disc is our projection for Gameweek 6. Discs carry club kit colours - Premier League crests are licensed, so we do not use them. C marks the strongest projection.

RayaARS · Goalkeeper · £6.1m · 42.2%4.8
TarkowskiEVE · Defender · £6.1m · 15.9%6.4
Maitland-NilesEVE · Defender · £4.5m · 1.3%5.0
De CuyperBHA · Defender · £4.9m · 27.3%5.0
GroßBHA · Midfielder · £5.8m · 27.8%6.4
B.FernandesMUN · Midfielder · £11.9m · 38.7%5.8
SakaARS · Midfielder · £9.5m · 13.5%5.6
SchadeBRE · Midfielder · £6.2m · 10.8%5.2
GakpoLIV · Midfielder · £7.2m · 12.6%5.1
HaalandMCI · Forward · £15.6m · 73.7%6.9
IsakLIV · Forward · £9.1m · 22.4%4.9

Chosen from all 248 available players with a projection.

Owned by 10% or fewer

Differential eleven

Projected: 49.2
Cost: £61.7m
Avg owned: 4%
Shape: 4-5-1

PitchList

The number on each disc is our projection for Gameweek 6. Discs carry club kit colours - Premier League crests are licensed, so we do not use them. C marks the strongest projection.

PickfordEVE · Goalkeeper · £5.5m · 9.1%4.0
Maitland-NilesEVE · Defender · £4.5m · 1.3%5.0
VuskovicBHA · Defender · £5.0m · 3.5%4.4
BranthwaiteEVE · Defender · £5.5m · 2.4%4.3
BogleLEE · Defender · £4.6m · 6.9%4.3
ManzambiAVL · Midfielder · £5.9m · 0.4%4.8
BarnesNEW · Midfielder · £6.1m · 5.5%4.6
WillockNEW · Midfielder · £5.0m · 0.5%4.6
CunhaMUN · Midfielder · £7.9m · 5.7%4.3
ScottBOU · Midfielder · £6.1m · 5.7%4.2
KostoulasBHA · Forward · £5.6m · 3.5%4.7

Chosen from 214 players under 10% ownership who have Premier League history and, once the season is underway, at least one start and points this season. Without those filters the low-owned pool fills with unused players whose projections are last-season prior — unknowns, not differentials.

Best value

Points per million this season so far, filtered to players projected 3+ this week.

Best value. Points per million this season so far, filtered to players projected 3+ this week.
#	Player	Club	Pos	Price	Value	xP
1	Bogle	LEE	DEF	£4.6m	9.1 pts/£m	4.3
2	Groß	BHA	MID	£5.8m	8.1 pts/£m	6.4
3	De Cuyper	BHA	DEF	£4.9m	7.8 pts/£m	5.0
4	Tzolakis	HUL	GK	£4.6m	7.4 pts/£m	4.6
5	Tarkowski	EVE	DEF	£6.1m	7.0 pts/£m	6.4
6	Gvardiol	MCI	DEF	£5.7m	6.5 pts/£m	4.8
7	Vuskovic	BHA	DEF	£5.0m	6.4 pts/£m	4.4
8	Ajayi	HUL	DEF	£4.2m	6.4 pts/£m	3.7

Most likely to return

Chance of a goal, an assist, or a clean sheet - not the size of the haul.

Most likely to return. Chance of a goal, an assist, or a clean sheet - not the size of the haul.
#	Player	Club	Pos	Price	Return chance	xP
1	J.Timber	ARS	DEF	£6.5m	62%	2.5
2	Calafiori	ARS	DEF	£5.8m	62%	4.5
3	Haaland	MCI	FWD	£15.6m	60%	6.9
4	Saka	ARS	MID	£9.5m	59%	5.6
5	Gabriel	ARS	DEF	£8.0m	58%	4.6
6	Konsa	ARS	DEF	£4.6m	55%	3.0
7	Mosquera	ARS	DEF	£5.3m	54%	3.6
8	Barry	EVE	FWD	£5.6m	54%	3.4

Differentials

Under 10% owned, started and scored this season. Where rank is actually won.

Differentials. Under 10% owned, started and scored this season. Where rank is actually won.
#	Player	Club	Pos	Price	Ownership	xP
1	Maitland-Niles	EVE	DEF	£4.5m	1.3% owned	5.0
2	Manzambi	AVL	MID	£5.9m	0.4% owned	4.8
3	Kostoulas	BHA	FWD	£5.6m	3.5% owned	4.7
4	Barnes	NEW	MID	£6.1m	5.5% owned	4.6
5	Willock	NEW	MID	£5.0m	0.5% owned	4.6
6	Vuskovic	BHA	DEF	£5.0m	3.5% owned	4.4
7	Branthwaite	EVE	DEF	£5.5m	2.4% owned	4.3
8	Bogle	LEE	DEF	£4.6m	6.9% owned	4.3

Set-piece takers

First choice on penalties, free kicks or corners. Free in the API; paid elsewhere.

Set-piece takers. First choice on penalties, free kicks or corners. Free in the API; paid elsewhere.
#	Player	Club	Pos	Price	Duty	xP
1	Haaland	MCI	FWD	£15.6m	P	6.9
2	Groß	BHA	MID	£5.8m	PFKC	6.4
3	B.Fernandes	MUN	MID	£11.9m	PFKC	5.8
4	Saka	ARS	MID	£9.5m	P	5.6
5	Cherki	MCI	MID	£7.8m	FKC	5.1
6	Hall	NEW	DEF	£5.3m	FKC	4.8
7	Gibbs-White	NFO	MID	£8.0m	PFK	4.7
8	Tavernier	BOU	MID	£6.1m	FKC	4.2
9	Stach	LEE	MID	£6.0m	FKC	3.6
10	Clarke	IPS	MID	£5.4m	P	3.5

What that eleven might actually score

4,000 simulated gameweeks. Points are built from components - appearance, a Poisson draw on expected involvements, a clean sheet, a defensive contribution - so the spread is the point, not the average.

Floor (10th pct)38Bad week, not a disaster

Median51As likely above as below

Ceiling (90th pct)65A very good week

Mean51.5The single number others quote

Bars are the share of simulations landing in each point range, 22 to 98 points. The model omits bonus points, cards and saves, so it is biased low - treat the ceiling as conservative.

Transfers that pay back a −4

Popular players whose replacement gains more than the hit costs, summed across the next 6 gameweeks. Only positives are listed.

Tzolis→Großgains 21.1 over 6 GWs+17.1 after the hit
Dubravka→Verbruggengains 19.3 over 6 GWs+15.3 after the hit
O'Reilly→Tarkowskigains 19.2 over 6 GWs+15.2 after the hit
Maguire→De Cuypergains 17.5 over 6 GWs+13.5 after the hit
Szoboszlai→Großgains 16.5 over 6 GWs+12.5 after the hit
Diop→Maitland-Nilesgains 15.3 over 6 GWs+11.3 after the hit

Chip timing

Fixture arguments only. Nobody's squad is readable, so this answers "which week has the friendliest schedule", not "which week suits your bench".

Bench BoostlowGameweek 6No double gameweek in this window. GW6 has the kindest schedule overall (mean difficulty 3.00), which is a weaker argument than a double - consider holding the chip.
Triple CaptainmoderateGameweek 6GW6 offers the softest defences to attack - NFO, COV, NEW have the kindest matchups by our attacking model.
Free HithighHoldNo blank gameweeks in this window, so there is nothing to rescue. Blanks appear later once cup and European fixtures force postponements - hold the chip.
WildcardmoderateGameweek 6Difficulty swings from 3.10 in GW37 to 3.00 in GW6. Wildcarding into the kinder run captures more of it - check the swing column on the fixtures grid for which clubs turn.

Doubles and blanks

Gameweeks where a club plays twice or not at all - the weeks that decide Bench Boost, Triple Captain and Free Hit.

No doubles or blanks in the next 33 gameweeks. The schedule only distorts later in the season, once cup replays and European fixtures start forcing postponements - so an empty result here is the expected one, not a missing feature.

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data. The eleven is a heuristic, not a proven optimum. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.