Captain

Who takes the armband

Every figure here is already doubled. Ranking by expected points alone is the answer every free tool gives, and it discards what actually decides the week: two players on the same projection are not the same bet if one has a ceiling of 24 and the other of 14. The armband doubles the variance too.

Highest expectedHaaland13.8 ptsBest average outcome. The default answer.
Least likely to blankTarkowski32% blank riskSteadiest route to points. Protecting a rank.
Best haul chanceSaka25% chance of 20+Biggest upside. Chasing a rank.

The shortlist, with its spread

Bars run from the 10th to the 90th percentile of 6,000 simulated gameweeks; the notch is the median. A long bar is a swing pick, a short one a floor pick.

  1. 1HaalandMCI · £15.6m · 73.7% ownedFDR 4Template13.8 EV
    Floor 4Median 12Ceiling 20Haul 20+ 21%Blank ≤4 39%
  2. 2GroßBHA · £5.8m · 27.8% ownedFDR 3Popular12.8 EV
    Floor 4Median 4Ceiling 18Haul 20+ 9%Blank ≤4 57%
  3. 3TarkowskiEVE · £6.1m · 15.9% ownedFDR 2Popular12.8 EV
    Floor 4Median 8Ceiling 16Haul 20+ 3%Blank ≤4 32%
  4. 4B.FernandesMUN · £11.9m · 38.7% ownedFDR 3Template11.6 EV
    Floor 4Median 10Ceiling 22Haul 20+ 16%Blank ≤4 44%
  5. 5SakaARS · £9.5m · 13.5% ownedFDR 2Popular11.2 EV
    Floor 4Median 14Ceiling 24Haul 20+ 25%Blank ≤4 34%
  6. 6SchadeBRE · £6.2m · 10.8% ownedFDR 4Popular10.4 EV
    Floor 4Median 4Ceiling 14Haul 20+ 4%Blank ≤4 66%
  7. 7GakpoLIV · £7.2m · 12.6% ownedFDR 4Popular10.2 EV
    Floor 4Median 4Ceiling 16Haul 20+ 6%Blank ≤4 56%
  8. 8CherkiMCI · £7.8m · 28.2% ownedFDR 4Popular10.2 EV
    Floor 4Median 8Ceiling 16Haul 20+ 8%Blank ≤4 49%

What this does not know

Deterministic: the same data always produces the same shortlist, which is what lets these picks be scored later on the report card. Not a guarantee.