Result projectioniEvery scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
EVE 36%Draw 25%CRY 39%
- Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.
- Medium
- 2.9 goals
- 0-1 22% · 2-3 46% · 4+ 32%
- Both to scoreiChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.
- 58%
- Clean sheetie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.
- EVE 23%
- CRY 24%
- To scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.
- EVE 76%
- CRY 77%
- EVE: 76% to score at least once. 34% exactly one. 41% two or more.
- CRY: 77% to score at least once. 34% exactly one. 43% two or more.
EVE · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Beto41%goal 40% · assist 1% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 1% at least one. 1% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 40% at least one. 31% exactly one. 9% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Barry34%goal 33% · assist 2% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 2% at least one. 2% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 33% at least one. 27% exactly one. 6% two or more. Most likely: none.
CRY · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Mateta47%goal 44% · assist 5% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 5% at least one. 5% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 44% at least one. 33% exactly one. 12% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Sarr39%goal 36% · assist 5% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 5% at least one. 5% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 36% at least one. 29% exactly one. 7% two or more. Most likely: none.
Result split sums to 100% — the remaining 0% sits in scorelines beyond 6-6, which the grid truncates. Home or draw is the two figures added.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public. Player count splits use the same model as the headline percentages, but only fixture-level numbers are filed in the public record today.
Result projectioniEvery scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
IPS 36%Draw 28%SUN 36%
- Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.
- Medium
- 2.4 goals
- 0-1 31% · 2-3 47% · 4+ 22%
- Both to scoreiChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.
- 48%
- Clean sheetie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.
- IPS 31%
- SUN 30%
- To scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.
- IPS 70%
- SUN 69%
- IPS: 70% to score at least once. 36% exactly one. 34% two or more.
- SUN: 69% to score at least once. 36% exactly one. 33% two or more.
IPS · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Lukić20%goal 11% · assist 10% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 10% at least one. 9% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 11% at least one. 11% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Diop10%goal 9% · assist 1% · unlikelyiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 1% at least one. 1% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 9% at least one. 9% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.
SUN · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Isidor35%goal 33% · assist 3% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 3% at least one. 3% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 33% at least one. 27% exactly one. 6% two or more. Most likely: none.
- E.Le Fée30%goal 15% · assist 17% · likely starteriThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 17% at least one. 16% exactly one. 2% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 15% at least one. 14% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.
Result split sums to 100% — the remaining 0% sits in scorelines beyond 6-6, which the grid truncates. Home or draw is the two figures added.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public. Player count splits use the same model as the headline percentages, but only fixture-level numbers are filed in the public record today.
Result projectioniEvery scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
NFO 42%Draw 25%LEE 32%
- Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.
- Medium
- 2.8 goals
- 0-1 24% · 2-3 46% · 4+ 30%
- Both to scoreiChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.
- 56%
- Clean sheetie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.
- NFO 28%
- LEE 23%
- To scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.
- NFO 77%
- LEE 72%
- NFO: 77% to score at least once. 34% exactly one. 44% two or more.
- LEE: 72% to score at least once. 36% exactly one. 36% two or more.
NFO · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Wood36%goal 34% · assist 3% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 3% at least one. 3% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 34% at least one. 27% exactly one. 7% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Gibbs-White34%goal 28% · assist 8% · likely starteriThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 8% at least one. 8% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 28% at least one. 24% exactly one. 4% two or more. Most likely: none.
LEE · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Nmecha52%goal 45% · assist 12% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 12% at least one. 12% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 45% at least one. 33% exactly one. 12% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Calvert-Lewin42%goal 40% · assist 3% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 3% at least one. 3% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 40% at least one. 31% exactly one. 9% two or more. Most likely: none.
Result split sums to 100% — the remaining 0% sits in scorelines beyond 6-6, which the grid truncates. Home or draw is the two figures added.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public. Player count splits use the same model as the headline percentages, but only fixture-level numbers are filed in the public record today.
Result projectioniEvery scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
BRE 37%Draw 25%TOT 38%
- Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.
- Medium
- 3.0 goals
- 0-1 21% · 2-3 45% · 4+ 34%
- Both to scoreiChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.
- 59%
- Clean sheetie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.
- BRE 23%
- TOT 23%
- To scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.
- BRE 77%
- TOT 77%
- BRE: 77% to score at least once. 34% exactly one. 43% two or more.
- TOT: 77% to score at least once. 34% exactly one. 44% two or more.
BRE · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Thiago45%goal 42% · assist 5% · likely starteriThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 5% at least one. 5% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 42% at least one. 32% exactly one. 11% two or more. Most likely: none.
- O.Dango37%goal 26% · assist 15% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 15% at least one. 13% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 26% at least one. 22% exactly one. 4% two or more. Most likely: none.
TOT · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Richarlison37%goal 33% · assist 6% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 6% at least one. 6% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 33% at least one. 27% exactly one. 6% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Tel28%goal 15% · assist 15% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 15% at least one. 14% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 15% at least one. 14% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.
Result split sums to 100% — the remaining 0% sits in scorelines beyond 6-6, which the grid truncates. Home or draw is the two figures added.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public. Player count splits use the same model as the headline percentages, but only fixture-level numbers are filed in the public record today.
Result projectioniEvery scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
BHA 38%Draw 26%AVL 36%
- Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.
- Medium
- 2.7 goals
- 0-1 25% · 2-3 47% · 4+ 29%
- Both to scoreiChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.
- 55%
- Clean sheetie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.
- BHA 27%
- AVL 25%
- To scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.
- BHA 75%
- AVL 73%
- BHA: 75% to score at least once. 35% exactly one. 40% two or more.
- AVL: 73% to score at least once. 35% exactly one. 38% two or more.
BHA · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Hinshelwood31%goal 22% · assist 11% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 11% at least one. 11% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 22% at least one. 20% exactly one. 3% two or more. Most likely: none.
- De Cuyper29%goal 9% · assist 22% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 22% at least one. 19% exactly one. 3% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 9% at least one. 9% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.
AVL · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Watkins40%goal 38% · assist 4% · likely starteriThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 4% at least one. 4% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 38% at least one. 30% exactly one. 8% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Garnacho40%goal 22% · assist 23% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 23% at least one. 20% exactly one. 3% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 22% at least one. 19% exactly one. 3% two or more. Most likely: none.
Result split sums to 100% — the remaining 0% sits in scorelines beyond 6-6, which the grid truncates. Home or draw is the two figures added.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public. Player count splits use the same model as the headline percentages, but only fixture-level numbers are filed in the public record today.
Result projectioniEvery scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
MCI 54%Draw 22%BOU 23%
- Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.
- High
- 3.1 goals
- 0-1 18% · 2-3 44% · 4+ 38%
- Both to scoreiChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.
- 59%
- Clean sheetie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.
- MCI 31%
- BOU 15%
- To scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.
- MCI 85%
- BOU 69%
- MCI: 85% to score at least once. 28% exactly one. 57% two or more.
- BOU: 69% to score at least once. 36% exactly one. 33% two or more.
MCI · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Haaland56%goal 52% · assist 7% · likely starteriThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 7% at least one. 7% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 52% at least one. 35% exactly one. 17% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Cherki49%goal 20% · assist 37% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 37% at least one. 29% exactly one. 8% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 20% at least one. 18% exactly one. 2% two or more. Most likely: none.
BOU · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Brooks45%goal 31% · assist 20% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 20% at least one. 18% exactly one. 2% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 31% at least one. 26% exactly one. 6% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Tavernier32%goal 23% · assist 12% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 12% at least one. 11% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 23% at least one. 20% exactly one. 3% two or more. Most likely: none.
Result split sums to 100% — the remaining 0% sits in scorelines beyond 6-6, which the grid truncates. Home or draw is the two figures added.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public. Player count splits use the same model as the headline percentages, but only fixture-level numbers are filed in the public record today.
Result projectioniEvery scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
NEW 29%Draw 25%LIV 45%
- Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.
- Medium
- 2.7 goals
- 0-1 24% · 2-3 46% · 4+ 29%
- Both to scoreiChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.
- 55%
- Clean sheetie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.
- NEW 21%
- LIV 30%
- To scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.
- NEW 70%
- LIV 79%
- NEW: 70% to score at least once. 36% exactly one. 33% two or more.
- LIV: 79% to score at least once. 33% exactly one. 46% two or more.
NEW · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Osula40%goal 36% · assist 6% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 6% at least one. 6% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 36% at least one. 29% exactly one. 7% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Barnes34%goal 26% · assist 11% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 11% at least one. 11% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 26% at least one. 22% exactly one. 4% two or more. Most likely: none.
LIV · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Ngumoha42%goal 20% · assist 28% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 28% at least one. 24% exactly one. 4% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 20% at least one. 18% exactly one. 2% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Wirtz36%goal 22% · assist 17% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 17% at least one. 16% exactly one. 2% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 22% at least one. 20% exactly one. 3% two or more. Most likely: none.
Result split sums to 100% — the remaining 0% sits in scorelines beyond 6-6, which the grid truncates. Home or draw is the two figures added.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public. Player count splits use the same model as the headline percentages, but only fixture-level numbers are filed in the public record today.
Result projectioniEvery scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
FUL 33%Draw 24%CHE 42%
- Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.
- Medium
- 3.0 goals
- 0-1 21% · 2-3 45% · 4+ 34%
- Both to scoreiChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.
- 59%
- Clean sheetie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.
- FUL 21%
- CHE 25%
- To scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.
- FUL 75%
- CHE 80%
- FUL: 75% to score at least once. 35% exactly one. 40% two or more.
- CHE: 80% to score at least once. 32% exactly one. 47% two or more.
FUL · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Bobb25%goal 11% · assist 16% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 16% at least one. 14% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 11% at least one. 11% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.
- Muniz25%goal 24% · assist 1% · rotation riskiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 1% at least one. 1% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 24% at least one. 21% exactly one. 3% two or more. Most likely: none.
CHE · Attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
- Palmer42%goal 36% · assist 10% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 10% at least one. 9% exactly one. 1% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 36% at least one. 28% exactly one. 7% two or more. Most likely: none.
- João Pedro42%goal 38% · assist 6% · probableiThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.Assists: 6% at least one. 6% exactly one. 0% two or more. Most likely: none.Goals: 38% at least one. 30% exactly one. 8% two or more. Most likely: none.
Result split sums to 100% — the remaining 0% sits in scorelines beyond 6-6, which the grid truncates. Home or draw is the two figures added.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public. Player count splits use the same model as the headline percentages, but only fixture-level numbers are filed in the public record today.