Predictions · Gameweek 6

What we say will happen

These are FPL projections from our own fixture model, filed before kick-off and scored once the match is over.

Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges. Probabilities, not odds. FPL projections from our own model. The squad-level record lives on /accuracy.

This page follows Gameweek 6 from the live FPL fixture list — when this week is fully played it will roll to the next one, without an edit. · Phases as of 4 Oct, 13:16 (build time), from published kick-off times.

DeadlineSaturday 10 October at 11:00

What we project

Result split, both teams to score, clean sheets, team goal counts, and the top attackers' chances of a goal or assist. Where it helps, we say none, exactly one, or two or more instead of hiding everything inside one percentage.

What we do not claim

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. We do not copy handicaps, exact scores, half-time markets, first scorer, cards, or corners. We answer only the questions our FPL data can support, and we answer them as probabilities, not bets.

Upcoming

10 fixtures, earliest kick-off first

ARS v LEE

Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

ARS 56%Draw 25%LEE 18%

Match climate
Medium
2.4 goals
  • 0–132%
  • 2–347%
  • 4+21%
Both to score
43%
Clean sheet
  • ARS46%
  • LEE20%
To score
  • ARS80%
  • LEE54%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
ARS80%32%47%two or more
LEE54%36%18%none

ARS · Attacking return

  • Saka57%
    likely starterG 48%A 18%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals48%34%14%none
    Assists18%16%2%none
  • Ødegaard38%
    likely starterG 19%A 23%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals19%17%2%none
    Assists23%20%3%none

LEE · Attacking return

  • Calvert-Lewin41%
    likely starterG 40%A 1%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals40%31%9%none
    Assists1%1%0%none
  • Bogle22%
    probableG 21%A 1%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals21%19%2%none
    Assists1%1%0%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

AVL v BRE

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

AVL 26%Draw 23%BRE 51%

Match climate
Medium
3.0 goals
  • 0–120%
  • 2–345%
  • 4+35%
Both to score
58%
Clean sheet
  • AVL17%
  • BRE30%
To score
  • AVL70%
  • BRE83%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
AVL70%36%34%exactly one
BRE83%30%53%two or more

AVL · Attacking return

  • N.Jackson27%
    probableG 15%A 14%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals15%14%1%none
    Assists14%13%1%none
  • Buendía21%
    likely starterG 17%A 5%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals17%16%2%none
    Assists5%5%0%none

BRE · Attacking return

  • Thiago48%
    likely starterG 46%A 3%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals46%33%13%none
    Assists3%3%0%none
  • Anthony43%
    probableG 32%A 16%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals32%26%6%none
    Assists16%15%1%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

CHE v BOU

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

CHE 37%Draw 23%BOU 40%

Match climate
High
3.2 goals
  • 0–117%
  • 2–343%
  • 4+41%
Both to score
64%
Clean sheet
  • CHE19%
  • BOU21%
To score
  • CHE80%
  • BOU81%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
CHE80%32%47%two or more
BOU81%32%49%two or more

CHE · Attacking return

  • João Pedro45%
    probableG 42%A 5%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals42%32%11%none
    Assists5%5%0%none
  • Rogers44%
    likely starterG 29%A 21%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals29%24%5%none
    Assists21%19%2%none

BOU · Attacking return

  • Tavernier39%
    likely starterG 27%A 16%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals27%23%4%none
    Assists16%15%1%none
  • Rayan22%
    likely starterG 15%A 8%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals15%14%1%none
    Assists8%8%0%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

IPS v FUL

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

IPS 38%Draw 24%FUL 38%

Match climate
High
3.0 goals
  • 0–120%
  • 2–345%
  • 4+36%
Both to score
61%
Clean sheet
  • IPS22%
  • FUL22%
To score
  • IPS78%
  • FUL78%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
IPS78%33%45%two or more
FUL78%33%45%two or more

IPS · Attacking return

  • Davis36%
    probableG 29%A 10%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals29%24%5%none
    Assists10%9%0%none
  • Enciso36%
    likely starterG 23%A 17%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals23%20%3%none
    Assists17%15%2%none

FUL · Attacking return

  • Gonzalo46%
    likely starterG 39%A 12%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals39%30%9%none
    Assists12%11%1%none
  • King35%
    likely starterG 28%A 9%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals28%24%4%none
    Assists9%9%0%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

SUN v BHA

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

SUN 42%Draw 22%BHA 35%

Match climate
High
3.4 goals
  • 0–114%
  • 2–341%
  • 4+45%
Both to score
67%
Clean sheet
  • SUN20%
  • BHA16%
To score
  • SUN84%
  • BHA80%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
SUN84%30%54%two or more
BHA80%32%48%two or more

SUN · Attacking return

  • E.Le Fée49%
    likely starterG 34%A 23%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals34%27%6%none
    Assists23%20%3%none
  • Brobbey45%
    probableG 44%A 2%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals44%32%11%none
    Assists2%2%0%none

BHA · Attacking return

  • Yalcouyé47%
    probableG 38%A 14%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals38%30%9%none
    Assists14%13%1%none
  • Groß41%
    likely starterG 30%A 16%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals30%25%5%none
    Assists16%15%1%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

MUN v TOT

Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

MUN 45%Draw 26%TOT 29%

Match climate
Medium
2.6 goals
  • 0–126%
  • 2–347%
  • 4+27%
Both to score
53%
Clean sheet
  • MUN32%
  • TOT22%
To score
  • MUN78%
  • TOT68%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
MUN78%33%44%two or more
TOT68%36%32%exactly one

MUN · Attacking return

  • B.Fernandes56%
    likely starterG 42%A 24%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals42%32%10%none
    Assists24%21%3%none
  • Mbeumo56%
    likely starterG 48%A 16%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals48%34%14%none
    Assists16%14%1%none

TOT · Attacking return

  • Sávio29%
    probableG 12%A 19%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals12%11%1%none
    Assists19%17%2%none
  • Solanke23%
    probableG 23%A 0%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals23%20%3%none
    Assists0%0%0%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

CRY v NFO

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

CRY 19%Draw 22%NFO 59%

Match climate
Medium
3.0 goals
  • 0–121%
  • 2–345%
  • 4+34%
Both to score
54%
Clean sheet
  • CRY14%
  • NFO37%
To score
  • CRY63%
  • NFO86%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
CRY63%37%26%none
NFO86%28%58%two or more

CRY · Attacking return

  • Khalaili27%
    probableG 21%A 8%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals21%19%2%none
    Assists8%7%0%none
  • Yeremy23%
    probableG 12%A 13%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals12%11%1%none
    Assists13%12%1%none

NFO · Attacking return

  • Gibbs-White45%
    likely starterG 27%A 25%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals27%23%4%none
    Assists25%21%3%none
  • Igor Jesus37%
    probableG 35%A 3%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals35%28%7%none
    Assists3%3%0%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

HUL v EVE

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

HUL 31%Draw 26%EVE 44%

Match climate
Medium
2.7 goals
  • 0–125%
  • 2–347%
  • 4+28%
Both to score
54%
Clean sheet
  • HUL23%
  • EVE30%
To score
  • HUL70%
  • EVE77%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
HUL70%36%34%exactly one
EVE77%34%44%two or more

HUL · Attacking return

  • McBurnie24%
    likely starterG 22%A 3%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals22%19%3%none
    Assists3%3%0%none
  • Belloumi20%
    probableG 13%A 8%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals13%12%1%none
    Assists8%8%0%none

EVE · Attacking return

  • Barry54%
    likely starterG 53%A 3%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals53%35%17%none
    Assists3%3%0%none
  • Johnson36%
    probableG 31%A 8%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals31%25%5%none
    Assists8%7%0%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

LIV v MCI

Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

LIV 45%Draw 24%MCI 31%

Match climate
Medium
3.0 goals
  • 0–120%
  • 2–345%
  • 4+35%
Both to score
59%
Clean sheet
  • LIV27%
  • MCI19%
To score
  • LIV81%
  • MCI73%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
LIV81%32%49%two or more
MCI73%35%38%two or more

LIV · Attacking return

  • Isak49%
    probableG 48%A 1%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals48%34%14%none
    Assists1%1%0%none
  • Gakpo42%
    probableG 14%A 33%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals14%13%1%none
    Assists33%27%6%none

MCI · Attacking return

  • Haaland60%
    likely starterG 56%A 9%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals56%36%20%none
    Assists9%9%0%none
  • Cherki41%
    likely starterG 15%A 30%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals15%14%1%none
    Assists30%25%5%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

COV v NEW

Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 UK

Match sheet

Result projection

COV 34%Draw 22%NEW 43%

Match climate
High
3.4 goals
  • 0–114%
  • 2–341%
  • 4+45%
Both to score
67%
Clean sheet
  • COV16%
  • NEW20%
To score
  • COV80%
  • NEW84%

Team goal counts

Club≥1Exactly 12+Most likely
COV80%32%48%two or more
NEW84%29%55%two or more

COV · Attacking return

  • Rudoni40%
    probableG 21%A 24%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals21%18%2%none
    Assists24%21%3%none
  • Dasilva19%
    probableG 10%A 10%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals10%9%1%none
    Assists10%10%1%none

NEW · Attacking return

  • Wissa40%
    likely starterG 39%A 1%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals39%30%9%none
    Assists1%1%0%none
  • Willock32%
    probableG 25%A 10%
    ≥112+Likely
    Goals25%21%3%none
    Assists10%9%1%none
  • Result bar sums to 100%; remaining 0% is scorelines beyond 6-6.
  • Probabilities from our model — not a confirmation, not a betting tip.
  • Player count splits use the same model; only fixture-level numbers are in the public scored record today.

What we said, and what happened

Squad record → /accuracy

Every probability below is the one from the log. Gameweek 1 was rebuilt from the frozen pre-deadline snapshot after the logger hook shipped late; later weeks are the file written before kick-off. None of it is recomputed from the known result.

Our Brier score of 0.216 beats climatology (0.218) across 48 matches. Lower is better.

Brier scores against baselines
ForecasterBinary BrierResult BrierBasis
Our model0.2160.641Poisson on expected goals conceded, filed before kick-off.
Climatology0.2180.688Fixed base rates: both to score 50%, home win 45%, draw 25%, away win 30%.
Coin flip0.250.66750% on everything binary, a third on each result.

Lower is better; 0 is a perfect forecast. Scored over 48 matches and 240 binary calls; mean error on total goals 1.645. No hit rate is published here — a hit rate rewards confident guessing.

Calibration

BandCallsWe saidIt happened
0%–10%47%25%
10%–20%1616%19%
20%–30%5424%30%
30%–40%2233%36%
40%–50%349%33%
50%–60%3456%53%
60%–70%3266%63%
70%–80%5576%69%
80%–90%1684%81%
90%–100%493%75%

Buckets are frozen when the gameweek is scored, so a later change to the model cannot redraw a past row. Events counted: bothTeamsToScore, homeCleanSheet, awayCleanSheet, homeToScore, awayToScore.

Read the verdicts carefully. One match cannot prove a probability right or wrong. Only the pooled Brier score and the calibration table below can do that. With us means the side of the call we leaned toward happened; against us means it did not; coin flip means we were between 45% and 55% and the match settles nothing.

Gameweek 5

  • BRE 3-0 CHEagainst us

    We said both teams to score 61% and a high-scoring match (3.1 expected goals). It finished 3-0, 3 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 31% / 24% / 45% · clean sheets 19% and 25% · Brier on result 0.731

  • TOT 2-3 AVLwith us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 2-3, 5 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 37% / 25% / 38% · clean sheets 23% and 24% · Brier on result 0.575

  • BHA 3-0 ARScoin flip

    We said both teams to score 49% and a medium-scoring match (2.5 expected goals). It finished 3-0, 3 goals, no both-to-score. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 25% / 26% / 49% · clean sheets 22% and 37% · Brier on result 0.872

  • EVE 1-0 IPSagainst us

    We said both teams to score 61% and a high-scoring match (3.2 expected goals). It finished 1-0, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 53% / 22% / 25% · clean sheets 28% and 15% · Brier on result 0.333

  • NEW 2-1 HULwith us

    We said both teams to score 64% and a high-scoring match (3.8 expected goals). It finished 2-1, 3 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 67% / 16% / 14% · clean sheets 31% and 7% · Brier on result 0.154

  • NFO 0-1 COVagainst us

    We said both teams to score 61% and a high-scoring match (3.2 expected goals). It finished 0-1, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 55% / 22% / 23% · clean sheets 29% and 13% · Brier on result 0.946

  • BOU 0-1 LIVagainst us

    We said both teams to score 58% and a high-scoring match (3.0 expected goals). It finished 0-1, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 25% / 23% / 52% · clean sheets 16% and 30% · Brier on result 0.345

  • LEE 0-0 CRYagainst us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 0-0, 0 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 36% / 25% / 39% · clean sheets 23% and 24% · Brier on result 0.850

  • MCI 5-3 SUNcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 53% and a medium-scoring match (2.8 expected goals). It finished 5-3, 8 goals, both scored. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 55% / 23% / 21% · clean sheets 36% and 17% · Brier on result 0.302

  • FUL 1-1 MUNwith us

    We said both teams to score 57% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 1-1, 2 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 31% / 25% / 44% · clean sheets 21% and 28% · Brier on result 0.860

Gameweek 4

  • AVL 1-2 NFOwith us

    We said both teams to score 61% and a high-scoring match (3.0 expected goals). It finished 1-2, 3 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 42% / 24% / 34% · clean sheets 24% and 20% · Brier on result 0.672

  • BOU 2-2 BREwith us

    We said both teams to score 62% and a high-scoring match (3.1 expected goals). It finished 2-2, 4 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 35% / 24% / 41% · clean sheets 20% and 23% · Brier on result 0.869

  • CHE 2-2 HULwith us

    We said both teams to score 66% and a high-scoring match (4.2 expected goals). It finished 2-2, 4 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 71% / 14% / 12% · clean sheets 31% and 5% · Brier on result 1.259

  • CRY 2-3 IPSwith us

    We said both teams to score 60% and a high-scoring match (3.2 expected goals). It finished 2-3, 5 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 54% / 22% / 24% · clean sheets 29% and 15% · Brier on result 0.914

  • LIV 0-0 FULcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 51% and a medium-scoring match (2.6 expected goals). It finished 0-0, 0 goals, no both-to-score. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 50% / 25% / 24% · clean sheets 36% and 21% · Brier on result 0.873

  • TOT 0-0 EVEagainst us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 0-0, 0 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 37% / 25% / 38% · clean sheets 23% and 23% · Brier on result 0.851

  • SUN 0-2 ARScoin flip

    We said both teams to score 50% and a medium-scoring match (2.6 expected goals). It finished 0-2, 2 goals, no both-to-score. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 24% / 25% / 51% · clean sheets 21% and 37% · Brier on result 0.359

  • COV 0-5 BHAagainst us

    We said both teams to score 56% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 0-5, 5 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 25% / 24% / 51% · clean sheets 18% and 32% · Brier on result 0.358

  • MUN 0-1 MCIagainst us

    We said both teams to score 57% and a medium-scoring match (2.8 expected goals). It finished 0-1, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 35% / 25% / 40% · clean sheets 23% and 26% · Brier on result 0.546

  • LEE 4-1 NEWcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 54% and a medium-scoring match (2.6 expected goals). It finished 4-1, 5 goals, both scored. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 38% / 26% / 35% · clean sheets 28% and 26% · Brier on result 0.572

Gameweek 3

  • IPS 0-2 LIVagainst us

    We said both teams to score 57% and a high-scoring match (3.2 expected goals). It finished 0-2, 2 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 16% / 19% / 63% · clean sheets 11% and 36% · Brier on result 0.199

  • NEW 2-2 BOUwith us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a medium-scoring match (3.0 expected goals). It finished 2-2, 4 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 43% / 24% / 32% · clean sheets 26% and 20% · Brier on result 0.864

  • BRE 1-1 SUNcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 54% and a medium-scoring match (2.7 expected goals). It finished 1-1, 2 goals, both scored. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 40% / 26% / 34% · clean sheets 28% and 25% · Brier on result 0.823

  • BHA 1-1 LEEcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 53% and a medium-scoring match (2.6 expected goals). It finished 1-1, 2 goals, both scored. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 45% / 26% / 29% · clean sheets 32% and 23% · Brier on result 0.839

  • FUL 2-3 CRYwith us

    We said both teams to score 57% and a medium-scoring match (2.8 expected goals). It finished 2-3, 5 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 38% / 25% / 37% · clean sheets 25% and 24% · Brier on result 0.609

  • MCI 1-0 COVagainst us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a high-scoring match (3.6 expected goals). It finished 1-0, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 69% / 16% / 13% · clean sheets 36% and 8% · Brier on result 0.137

  • NFO 0-0 TOTagainst us

    We said both teams to score 58% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 0-0, 0 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 39% / 25% / 36% · clean sheets 24% and 23% · Brier on result 0.847

  • HUL 0-0 AVLagainst us

    We said both teams to score 66% and a high-scoring match (3.9 expected goals). It finished 0-0, 0 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 15% / 17% / 66% · clean sheets 7% and 29% · Brier on result 1.153

  • EVE 2-2 MUNwith us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 2-2, 4 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 29% / 24% / 46% · clean sheets 19% and 28% · Brier on result 0.877

  • ARS 2-1 CHEwith us

    We said both teams to score 56% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 2-1, 3 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 52% / 24% / 24% · clean sheets 32% and 17% · Brier on result 0.348

Gameweek 2

  • CRY 1-4 MCIwith us

    We said both teams to score 55% and a medium-scoring match (2.8 expected goals). It finished 1-4, 5 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 28% / 25% / 47% · clean sheets 20% and 31% · Brier on result 0.419

  • LIV 2-2 NFOwith us

    We said both teams to score 57% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 2-2, 4 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 49% / 24% / 27% · clean sheets 30% and 19% · Brier on result 0.888

  • BOU 1-1 EVEwith us

    We said both teams to score 61% and a high-scoring match (3.1 expected goals). It finished 1-1, 2 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 35% / 24% / 41% · clean sheets 20% and 23% · Brier on result 0.867

  • COV 0-1 HULagainst us

    We said both teams to score 74% and a high-scoring match (4.0 expected goals). It finished 0-1, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 50% / 20% / 29% · clean sheets 18% and 10% · Brier on result 0.789

  • TOT 0-2 NEWcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 53% and a medium-scoring match (2.6 expected goals). It finished 0-2, 2 goals, no both-to-score. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 39% / 26% / 35% · clean sheets 28% and 26% · Brier on result 0.645

  • CHE 4-3 BHAcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 54% and a medium-scoring match (2.7 expected goals). It finished 4-3, 7 goals, both scored. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 45% / 26% / 30% · clean sheets 31% and 22% · Brier on result 0.460

  • LEE 1-1 BREwith us

    We said both teams to score 60% and a medium-scoring match (3.0 expected goals). It finished 1-1, 2 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 37% / 24% / 38% · clean sheets 23% and 23% · Brier on result 0.855

  • SUN 1-0 FULcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 52% and a medium-scoring match (2.6 expected goals). It finished 1-0, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 41% / 26% / 32% · clean sheets 30% and 25% · Brier on result 0.517

  • MUN 5-2 IPSwith us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a high-scoring match (3.3 expected goals). It finished 5-2, 7 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 62% / 20% / 18% · clean sheets 33% and 11% · Brier on result 0.219

  • AVL 0-1 ARScoin flip

    We said both teams to score 54% and a medium-scoring match (2.7 expected goals). It finished 0-1, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 27% / 25% / 48% · clean sheets 20% and 32% · Brier on result 0.404

Gameweek 1

The GW1 squad log was written 26 minutes before match filing landed in the logger. These probabilities were rebuilt from that same frozen pre-deadline snapshot. Results were not inputs.

  • ARS v COV — not scored. No pooled defensive record for COV, so there is no λ to file.
  • HUL v MUN — not scored. No pooled defensive record for HUL, so there is no λ to file.

  • EVE 2-0 CRYagainst us

    We said both teams to score 58% and a medium-scoring match (2.9 expected goals). It finished 2-0, 2 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 36% / 25% / 39% · clean sheets 23% and 24% · Brier on result 0.616

  • IPS 2-1 SUNcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 48% and a medium-scoring match (2.4 expected goals). It finished 2-1, 3 goals, both scored. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 36% / 28% / 36% · clean sheets 31% and 30% · Brier on result 0.612

  • NFO 0-1 LEEagainst us

    We said both teams to score 56% and a medium-scoring match (2.8 expected goals). It finished 0-1, 1 goal, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 42% / 25% / 32% · clean sheets 28% and 23% · Brier on result 0.699

  • BRE 3-0 TOTagainst us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a medium-scoring match (3.0 expected goals). It finished 3-0, 3 goals, no both-to-score. Against us.

    Filed: result 37% / 25% / 38% · clean sheets 23% and 23% · Brier on result 0.595

  • BHA 4-0 AVLcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 55% and a medium-scoring match (2.7 expected goals). It finished 4-0, 4 goals, no both-to-score. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 38% / 26% / 36% · clean sheets 27% and 25% · Brier on result 0.573

  • MCI 2-1 BOUwith us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a high-scoring match (3.1 expected goals). It finished 2-1, 3 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 54% / 22% / 23% · clean sheets 31% and 15% · Brier on result 0.312

  • NEW 2-2 LIVcoin flip

    We said both teams to score 55% and a medium-scoring match (2.7 expected goals). It finished 2-2, 4 goals, both scored. Coin flip.

    Filed: result 29% / 25% / 45% · clean sheets 21% and 30% · Brier on result 0.851

  • FUL 2-3 CHEwith us

    We said both teams to score 59% and a medium-scoring match (3.0 expected goals). It finished 2-3, 5 goals, both scored. With us.

    Filed: result 33% / 24% / 42% · clean sheets 21% and 25% · Brier on result 0.500