Start probability

Who actually starts

A model of how likely each player is to be in his manager's eleven, built from how often he has started and what FPL currently says about his fitness. Shown in bands, because the evidence does not support decimal places.

Risks that matter

Expensive, widely owned, and not certain to start - ranked by how many squads the risk actually touches. The cyan bar is modelled chance to start; ownership sits beside it so you can see how widely the risk lands. A cheap defender at 30% affects nobody; a premium forward owned by a fifth of the game is a decision millions of managers have to make.

Players who are already out or suspended are included rather than filtered away. They are not doubts - there is nothing uncertain about them - but a widely owned player who cannot play is the most expensive thing on this page, so leaving him off would hide the very case that matters most.

PlayerChance to startOwned

  1. 1CHE
    Out6 starts this season
    0%to start
    33.7%
  2. 2ARS
    SakaMID
    Out7 starts this season
    0%to start
    5.7%
  3. 3MCI
    Out6 starts this season
    0%to start
    5.7%
  4. 4ARS
    Rotation1 start this season
    47%to start
    3%

Budget players who play

The enabler search. A cheap pick is only worth the slot if he starts - the cyan bar is that modelled chance; price sits beside it. One who plays twenty games costs you a bench place every other week, which is worse than paying more in the first place.

PlayerChance to startPrice

  1. 1LEE
    Likely10 starts this season
    85%to start
    £5.1m
  2. 2NEW
    HallDEF
    Likely10 starts this season
    85%to start
    £5.2m
  3. 3LEE
    Likely10 starts this season
    85%to start
    £5.3m
  4. 4TOT
    Likely10 starts this season
    85%to start
    £5.3m
  5. 5HUL
    Likely10 starts this season
    85%to start
    £5.5m
  6. 6MCI
    Likely10 starts this season
    85%to start
    £5.5m
  7. 7NFO
    Likely10 starts this season
    85%to start
    £5.5m
  8. 8FUL
    Likely10 starts this season
    84%to start
    £4.5m
  9. 9LEE
    Likely10 starts this season
    84%to start
    £4.5m
  10. 10NFO
    Likely10 starts this season
    84%to start
    £4.9m
  11. 11EVE
    Likely10 starts this season
    84%to start
    £5.0m
  12. 12TOT
    Likely10 starts this season
    84%to start
    £5.0m

The whole league

Where all 671 players sit. The size of the unknown group is the point: a new signing or a promoted club's squad has no minutes in this league, so there is nothing to read and the model says so instead of guessing.

Per-club breakdowns sit on each club page, where the whole squad is ranked together.