FPList - Brentford vs Liverpool

BrentfordvsLiverpool

Saturday 17 October at 14:004difficulty for BRE3difficulty for LIV

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Schade

BRE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£6.2m

Owned

12%

Fixture

4/5

xG: 1.52
xA: 0.32
DefCon: 7%
This season: 39 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

A.Becker

LIV · Goalkeeper · Away

Projected

4.0 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

4.2%

Fixture

3/5

Best Defender

Araujo

LIV · Defender · Away

Projected

4.4 pts

Price

£5.4m

Owned

3.1%

Fixture

3/5

Best Midfielder

Schade

BRE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£6.2m

Owned

12%

Fixture

4/5

Best Forward

Isak

LIV · Forward · Away

Projected

3.9 pts

Price

£9.1m

Owned

22.1%

Fixture

3/5

Doubtful · 75% chance

Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing

Head to head

BRELIV

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

BRE 32% · draw 27% · LIV 42%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

Medium

2.5 expected goals in total

0–128%
2–347%
4+25%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

BRE25%
LIV31%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
BRE	69%	36%	32%	exactly one
LIV	75%	35%	40%	two or more

Both to score: 51%

BRE · anytime attacking return

Thiago · likely starter48%goal 46% · assist 3%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 46% 33% 13% none
Assists 3% 3% 0% none
Anthony · probable43%goal 32% · assist 16%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 32% 26% 6% none
Assists 16% 15% 1% none
O.Dango · probable38%goal 9% · assist 32%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 9% 8% 0% none
Assists 32% 26% 6% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	46%	33%	13%	none
Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	32%	26%	6%	none
Assists	16%	15%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	9%	8%	0%	none
Assists	32%	26%	6%	none

LIV · anytime attacking return

Isak · probable49%goal 48% · assist 1%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 48% 34% 14% none
Assists 1% 1% 0% none
Gakpo · probable42%goal 14% · assist 33%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 14% 13% 1% none
Assists 33% 27% 6% none
Ngumoha · probable40%goal 32% · assist 12%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 32% 26% 6% none
Assists 12% 11% 1% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	48%	34%	14%	none
Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
Assists	33%	27%	6%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	32%	26%	6%	none
Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Brentford

Pick 1

Schade

BRE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£6.2m

Owned

12%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

Schuster

BRE · Defender · Home

Projected

3.9 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

0.3%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

Janelt

BRE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

3.8 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

2.5%

Fixture

4/5

Liverpool

Pick 1

Araujo

LIV · Defender · Away

Projected

4.4 pts

Price

£5.4m

Owned

3.1%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Gakpo

LIV · Midfielder · Away

Projected

4.1 pts

Price

£7.2m

Owned

12.2%

Fixture

3/5

Doubtful · 75% chance

Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing

Pick 3

A.Becker

LIV · Goalkeeper · Away

Projected

4.0 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

4.2%

Fixture

3/5

Also in Gameweek 7

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.