Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.1 expected goals in total

• 0–119%
• 2–344%
• 4+37%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• COV25%
• IPS18%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 61%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

COV · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Rudoni · likely starter37%goal 23% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	18%	16%	2%	none

• Awoniyi · likely starter35%goal 34% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	34%	28%	7%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Tchaouna · probable23%goal 16% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	15%	1%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

IPS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Enciso · likely starter36%goal 19% · assist 21%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	21%	18%	2%	none

• Emersonn · likely starter27%goal 25% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	25%	22%	4%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Clarke · probable25%goal 13% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	13%	12%	1%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none