Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

3.0 expected goals in total

• 0–120%
• 2–345%
• 4+35%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• FUL22%
• HUL23%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 60%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

FUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gonzalo · likely starter46%goal 39% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	39%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

• King · likely starter35%goal 28% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	28%	24%	4%	none
  Assists	9%	9%	0%	none

• Bobb · probable30%goal 11% · assist 22%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	11%	10%	1%	none
  Assists	22%	19%	3%	none

HUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• McBurnie · likely starter24%goal 22% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Belloumi · probable20%goal 13% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	13%	12%	1%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

• Slater · probable14%goal 4% · assist 11%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	4%	4%	0%	none
  Assists	11%	10%	1%	none