Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.0 expected goals in total

• 0–120%
• 2–345%
• 4+36%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• LEE36%
• IPS14%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 55%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

LEE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Calvert-Lewin · likely starter35%goal 33% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	33%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Nmecha · rotation risk33%goal 26% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	26%	22%	4%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	1%	none

• Longstaff · rotation risk23%goal 17% · assist 7%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	7%	7%	0%	none

IPS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Enciso · likely starter36%goal 19% · assist 21%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	21%	18%	2%	none

• Emersonn · likely starter27%goal 25% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	25%	22%	4%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Clarke · probable25%goal 13% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	13%	12%	1%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none