Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.3 expected goals in total

• 0–116%
• 2–342%
• 4+41%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• MCI23%
• CHE16%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 64%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

MCI · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Foden · likely starter65%goal 46% · assist 35%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	46%	33%	13%	none
  Assists	35%	28%	7%	none

• Haaland · likely starter57%goal 53% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	53%	35%	17%	none
  Assists	9%	8%	0%	none

• Doku · likely starter47%goal 19% · assist 34%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	34%	28%	7%	none

CHE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Welbeck · probable42%goal 0% · assist 42%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	42%	32%	10%	none

• Estêvão · probable42%goal 20% · assist 27%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	20%	18%	2%	none
  Assists	27%	23%	4%	none

• Rogers · likely starter37%goal 26% · assist 15%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	26%	22%	4%	none
  Assists	15%	13%	1%	none