Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.8 expected goals in total

• 0–123%
• 2–346%
• 4+31%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• HUL28%
• BHA21%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 57%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

HUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• McBurnie · likely starter24%goal 22% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Belloumi · probable20%goal 13% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	13%	12%	1%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

• Slater · probable14%goal 4% · assist 11%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	4%	4%	0%	none
  Assists	11%	10%	1%	none

BHA · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Yalcouyé · probable47%goal 38% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	38%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

• Groß · likely starter41%goal 30% · assist 16%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	16%	15%	1%	none

• De Cuyper · probable36%goal 27% · assist 13%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
  Assists	13%	12%	1%	none