Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.3 expected goals in total

• 0–134%
• 2–347%
• 4+19%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• ARS51%
• LEE20%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 39%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

ARS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Saka · likely starter59%goal 50% · assist 19%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	50%	35%	15%	none
  Assists	19%	17%	2%	none

• Ødegaard · likely starter41%goal 21% · assist 25%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	25%	22%	3%	none

• Havertz · likely starter35%goal 30% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	8%	7%	0%	none

LEE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Calvert-Lewin · likely starter41%goal 40% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	40%	31%	9%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Bogle · probable22%goal 21% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Stach · likely starter20%goal 16% · assist 5%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	5%	5%	0%	none