Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.2 expected goals in total

• 0–117%
• 2–343%
• 4+40%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• SUN25%
• BHA16%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 63%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

SUN · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• E.Le Fée · likely starter52%goal 36% · assist 25%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	36%	29%	7%	none
  Assists	25%	22%	3%	none

• Brobbey · likely starter48%goal 47% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	47%	34%	13%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Xhaka · likely starter25%goal 1% · assist 24%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	1%	1%	0%	none
  Assists	24%	21%	3%	none

BHA · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Yalcouyé · probable47%goal 38% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	38%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

• Groß · likely starter41%goal 30% · assist 16%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	16%	15%	1%	none

• De Cuyper · probable36%goal 27% · assist 13%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
  Assists	13%	12%	1%	none