Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.6 expected goals in total

• 0–128%
• 2–347%
• 4+25%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• ARS40%
• MCI19%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 48%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

ARS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Merino · rotation risk41%goal 31% · assist 15%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	15%	14%	1%	none

• Madueke · probable40%goal 17% · assist 28%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	28%	23%	4%	none

• Ødegaard · likely starter38%goal 21% · assist 22%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	22%	19%	3%	none

MCI · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Foden · likely starter65%goal 46% · assist 35%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	46%	33%	13%	none
  Assists	35%	28%	7%	none

• Haaland · likely starter57%goal 53% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	53%	35%	17%	none
  Assists	9%	8%	0%	none

• Doku · likely starter47%goal 19% · assist 34%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	34%	28%	7%	none