Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.6 expected goals in total

• 0–126%
• 2–347%
• 4+27%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• LEE36%
• COV20%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 51%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

LEE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Calvert-Lewin · likely starter35%goal 33% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	33%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Nmecha · rotation risk33%goal 26% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	26%	22%	4%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	1%	none

• Longstaff · rotation risk23%goal 17% · assist 7%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	7%	7%	0%	none

COV · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Rudoni · likely starter37%goal 23% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	18%	16%	2%	none

• Awoniyi · likely starter35%goal 34% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	34%	28%	7%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Tchaouna · probable23%goal 16% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	15%	1%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none