Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.0 expected goals in total

• 0–120%
• 2–345%
• 4+36%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• COV20%
• AVL24%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 61%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

COV · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Rudoni · likely starter37%goal 23% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	18%	16%	2%	none

• Awoniyi · likely starter35%goal 34% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	34%	28%	7%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Tchaouna · probable23%goal 16% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	15%	1%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

AVL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Manzambi · likely starter38%goal 30% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

• McGinn · likely starter33%goal 27% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

• N.Jackson · likely starter33%goal 25% · assist 11%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	25%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	11%	10%	1%	none