Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.6 expected goals in total

• 0–126%
• 2–347%
• 4+27%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• EVE30%
• FUL24%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 53%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

EVE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Barry · likely starter51%goal 49% · assist 4%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	49%	34%	15%	none
  Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

• Dewsbury-Hall · likely starter26%goal 16% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	12%	12%	1%	none

• Johnson · likely starter24%goal 18% · assist 7%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	7%	7%	0%	none

FUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gonzalo · likely starter34%goal 30% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

• Iwobi · likely starter31%goal 11% · assist 22%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	11%	10%	1%	none
  Assists	22%	20%	3%	none

• Bobb · likely starter26%goal 14% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none