Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.9 expected goals in total

• 0–122%
• 2–346%
• 4+32%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• EVE21%
• LIV28%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 58%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

EVE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Barry · likely starter51%goal 49% · assist 4%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	49%	34%	15%	none
  Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

• Dewsbury-Hall · likely starter26%goal 16% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	12%	12%	1%	none

• Johnson · likely starter24%goal 18% · assist 7%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	7%	7%	0%	none

LIV · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Isak · likely starter44%goal 42% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	42%	32%	10%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Gakpo · likely starter40%goal 18% · assist 26%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	26%	23%	4%	none

• Szoboszlai · likely starter35%goal 22% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	1%	none