Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.7 expected goals in total

• 0–125%
• 2–347%
• 4+28%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• HUL23%
• EVE30%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 54%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

HUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• McBurnie · likely starter24%goal 22% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Belloumi · probable20%goal 13% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	13%	12%	1%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

• Slater · probable14%goal 4% · assist 11%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	4%	4%	0%	none
  Assists	11%	10%	1%	none

EVE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Barry · likely starter54%goal 53% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	53%	35%	17%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Johnson · probable36%goal 31% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	8%	7%	0%	none

• Dewsbury-Hall · likely starter33%goal 20% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	20%	18%	2%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	1%	none