Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.5 expected goals in total

• 0–128%
• 2–347%
• 4+25%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• NFO29%
• BHA28%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 51%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

NFO · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gibbs-White · likely starter39%goal 23% · assist 21%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	21%	19%	2%	none

• Igor Jesus · probable35%goal 33% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	33%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Delap · likely starter33%goal 29% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

BHA · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Yalcouyé · probable46%goal 35% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	35%	28%	7%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	1%	none

• Groß · likely starter36%goal 23% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	17%	16%	2%	none

• Hinshelwood · rotation risk33%goal 32% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	32%	26%	6%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none