Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.8 expected goals in total

• 0–124%
• 2–346%
• 4+30%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• SUN18%
• NFO34%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 54%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

SUN · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Isidor · rotation risk48%goal 47% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	47%	34%	13%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• E.Le Fée · likely starter42%goal 29% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	18%	17%	2%	none

• Brobbey · likely starter40%goal 39% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	39%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

NFO · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gibbs-White · likely starter39%goal 23% · assist 21%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	21%	19%	2%	none

• Igor Jesus · probable35%goal 33% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	33%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Delap · likely starter33%goal 29% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none