Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Low

2.1 expected goals in total

• 0–139%
• 2–346%
• 4+15%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• TOT29%
• ARS45%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 39%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

TOT · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gallagher · probable40%goal 36% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	36%	29%	7%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

• Solanke · likely starter33%goal 31% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	26%	5%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Kudus · probable31%goal 20% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	20%	18%	2%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

ARS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Merino · rotation risk41%goal 31% · assist 15%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	15%	14%	1%	none

• Madueke · probable40%goal 17% · assist 28%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	28%	23%	4%	none

• Ødegaard · likely starter38%goal 21% · assist 22%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	22%	19%	3%	none