Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

3.0 expected goals in total

• 0–121%
• 2–345%
• 4+34%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• ARS45%
• MUN12%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 49%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

ARS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Merino · rotation risk41%goal 31% · assist 15%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	15%	14%	1%	none

• Madueke · probable40%goal 17% · assist 28%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	28%	23%	4%	none

• Ødegaard · likely starter38%goal 21% · assist 22%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	22%	19%	3%	none

MUN · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Mbeumo · likely starter43%goal 35% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	35%	28%	7%	none
  Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

• B.Fernandes · likely starter41%goal 29% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	2%	none

• Cunha · likely starter28%goal 17% · assist 13%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	15%	2%	none
  Assists	13%	12%	1%	none