Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

3.0 expected goals in total

• 0–121%
• 2–345%
• 4+34%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• MCI33%
• HUL16%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 56%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

MCI · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Foden · likely starter65%goal 46% · assist 35%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	46%	33%	13%	none
  Assists	35%	28%	7%	none

• Haaland · likely starter57%goal 53% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	53%	35%	17%	none
  Assists	9%	8%	0%	none

• Doku · likely starter47%goal 19% · assist 34%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	34%	28%	7%	none

HUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Cho · rotation risk54%goal 33% · assist 32%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	33%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	32%	26%	6%	none

• Belloumi · likely starter23%goal 14% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
  Assists	10%	10%	1%	none

• Thomas · probable23%goal 6% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	6%	6%	0%	none
  Assists	18%	16%	2%	none