Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.4 expected goals in total

• 0–115%
• 2–341%
• 4+44%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• BRE23%
• NEW15%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 65%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

BRE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Thiago · likely starter45%goal 37% · assist 13%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	37%	29%	8%	none
  Assists	13%	12%	1%	none

• Anthony · likely starter37%goal 27% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

• O.Dango · likely starter31%goal 19% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

NEW · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wissa · likely starter34%goal 33% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	33%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Barnes · likely starter25%goal 18% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

• Elanga · probable24%goal 16% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	15%	1%	none
  Assists	9%	9%	0%	none