Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.5 expected goals in total

• 0–128%
• 2–347%
• 4+25%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• LIV28%
• TOT29%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 52%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

LIV · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Isak · likely starter44%goal 42% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	42%	32%	10%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Gakpo · likely starter40%goal 18% · assist 26%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	26%	23%	4%	none

• Szoboszlai · likely starter35%goal 22% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	1%	none

TOT · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gallagher · probable40%goal 36% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	36%	29%	7%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

• Solanke · likely starter33%goal 31% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	26%	5%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Kudus · probable31%goal 20% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	20%	18%	2%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none