FPList - Chelsea vs Aston Villa

ChelseavsAston Villa

Monday 21 December at 20:003difficulty for CHE4difficulty for AVL

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Rogers

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.9 pts

Price

£8.2m

Owned

53.9%

Fixture

3/5

xG: 2.78
xA: 1.44
DefCon: 13%
This season: 50 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Away

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

3.1%

Fixture

4/5

Best Defender

Palestra

CHE · Defender · Home

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.3m

Owned

0.5%

Fixture

3/5

Best Midfielder

Rogers

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.9 pts

Price

£8.2m

Owned

53.9%

Fixture

3/5

Best Forward

N.Jackson

AVL · Forward · Away

Projected

4.1 pts

Price

£7.1m

Owned

28.9%

Fixture

4/5

Head to head

CHEAVL

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

CHE 48% · draw 22% · AVL 29%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

High

3.3 expected goals in total

0–116%
2–342%
4+42%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

CHE24%
AVL15%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
CHE	85%	29%	56%	two or more
AVL	76%	34%	42%	two or more

Both to score: 64%

CHE · anytime attacking return

Welbeck · probable42%goal 0% · assist 42%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 0% 0% 0% none
Assists 42% 32% 10% none
Estêvão · probable42%goal 20% · assist 27%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 20% 18% 2% none
Assists 27% 23% 4% none
Rogers · likely starter37%goal 26% · assist 15%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 26% 22% 4% none
Assists 15% 13% 1% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
Assists	42%	32%	10%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	20%	18%	2%	none
Assists	27%	23%	4%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	26%	22%	4%	none
Assists	15%	13%	1%	none

AVL · anytime attacking return

Manzambi · likely starter38%goal 30% · assist 12%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 30% 25% 5% none
Assists 12% 11% 1% none
McGinn · likely starter33%goal 27% · assist 8%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 27% 23% 4% none
Assists 8% 8% 0% none
N.Jackson · likely starter33%goal 25% · assist 11%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 25% 21% 3% none
Assists 11% 10% 1% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	25%	21%	3%	none
Assists	11%	10%	1%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Chelsea

Pick 1

Rogers

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.9 pts

Price

£8.2m

Owned

53.9%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Palmer

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.8 pts

Price

£9.8m

Owned

28.6%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

Henderson

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.2 pts

Price

£4.9m

Owned

1.4%

Fixture

3/5

Aston Villa

Pick 1

Manzambi

AVL · Midfielder · Away

Projected

4.7 pts

Price

£6.2m

Owned

8.3%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

N.Jackson

AVL · Forward · Away

Projected

4.1 pts

Price

£7.1m

Owned

28.9%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

Buendía

AVL · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.3 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

1.1%

Fixture

4/5

Also in Gameweek 16

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.