FPList - Aston Villa vs Fulham

Aston VillavsFulham

Saturday 31 October at 20:002difficulty for AVL4difficulty for FUL

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Manzambi

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

0.2%

Fixture

2/5

xG: 0.44
xA: 0.24
DefCon: 0%
This season: 14 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

1.8%

Fixture

2/5

Best Defender

Castagne

FUL · Defender · Away

Projected

2.9 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

0.9%

Fixture

4/5

Best Midfielder

Manzambi

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

0.2%

Fixture

2/5

Best Forward

N.Jackson

AVL · Forward · Home

Projected

2.6 pts

Price

£6.5m

Owned

1.3%

Fixture

2/5

Head to head

AVLFUL

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

AVL 50% · draw 21% · FUL 28%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

High

3.6 expected goals in total

0–112%
2–339%
4+49%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

AVL22%
FUL12%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
AVL	88%	26%	62%	two or more
FUL	78%	33%	45%	two or more

Both to score: 69%

AVL · anytime attacking return

N.Jackson · probable27%goal 15% · assist 14%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 15% 14% 1% none
Assists 14% 13% 1% none
Buendía · likely starter21%goal 17% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 17% 16% 2% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none
McGinn · likely starter18%goal 14% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 14% 13% 1% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	17%	16%	2%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

FUL · anytime attacking return

Gonzalo · probable40%goal 36% · assist 7%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 36% 28% 7% none
Assists 7% 6% 0% none
King · probable34%goal 26% · assist 11%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 26% 22% 4% none
Assists 11% 10% 1% none
Bobb · probable31%goal 8% · assist 25%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 8% 8% 0% none
Assists 25% 21% 3% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	36%	28%	7%	none
Assists	7%	6%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	26%	22%	4%	none
Assists	11%	10%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	8%	8%	0%	none
Assists	25%	21%	3%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Aston Villa

Pick 1

Manzambi

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.1 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

0.2%

Fixture

2/5

Pick 2

Buendía

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

3.5 pts

Price

£5.9m

Owned

0.9%

Fixture

2/5

Pick 3

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

1.8%

Fixture

2/5

Fulham

Pick 1

King

FUL · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.6 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

2.1%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

Castagne

FUL · Defender · Away

Projected

2.9 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

0.9%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

Affengruber

FUL · Defender · Away

Projected

2.9 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

Fixture

4/5

Also in Gameweek 9

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.