Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.9 expected goals in total

• 0–121%
• 2–346%
• 4+33%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• BRE23%
• NFO24%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 59%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

BRE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Thiago · likely starter45%goal 44% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	44%	32%	11%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Wilson · rotation risk45%goal 32% · assist 20%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	32%	26%	6%	none
  Assists	20%	17%	2%	none

• Schade · likely starter37%goal 31% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	9%	9%	0%	none

NFO · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wood · rotation risk32%goal 30% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Gibbs-White · likely starter31%goal 29% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Delap · rotation risk30%goal 22% · assist 11%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	11%	10%	1%	none