Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.9 expected goals in total

• 0–122%
• 2–346%
• 4+32%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• BOU25%
• LEE23%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 58%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

BOU · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Brooks · rotation risk50%goal 0% · assist 50%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	50%	35%	15%	none

• Tavernier · probable36%goal 31% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

• Rayan · probable31%goal 28% · assist 4%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	28%	24%	4%	none
  Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

LEE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Nmecha · rotation risk55%goal 41% · assist 24%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	41%	31%	10%	none
  Assists	24%	21%	3%	none

• Calvert-Lewin · probable42%goal 40% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	40%	31%	10%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Wilson · probable32%goal 5% · assist 28%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	5%	5%	0%	none
  Assists	28%	24%	4%	none