FPList - Chelsea vs Man Utd

ChelseavsMan Utd

Saturday 31 October at 12:304difficulty for CHE4difficulty for MUN

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

B.Fernandes

MUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

6.6 pts

Price

£12.0m

Owned

48.4%

Fixture

4/5

xG: 2.10
xA: 0.74
DefCon: 16%
Last season: 25 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Martinez

CHE · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

2.8 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

4.6%

Fixture

4/5

Best Defender

Lacroix

CHE · Defender · Home

Projected

3.4 pts

Price

£6.0m

Owned

8.2%

Fixture

4/5

Best Midfielder

B.Fernandes

MUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

6.6 pts

Price

£12.0m

Owned

48.4%

Fixture

4/5

Best Forward

João Pedro

CHE · Forward · Home

Projected

5.2 pts

Price

£7.7m

Owned

71.7%

Fixture

4/5

Head to head

CHEMUN

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

CHE 36% · draw 24% · MUN 40%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

High

3.0 expected goals in total

0–120%
2–345%
4+36%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

CHE21%
MUN23%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
CHE	77%	34%	43%	two or more
MUN	79%	33%	46%	two or more

Both to score: 61%

CHE · anytime attacking return

Palmer · probable46%goal 37% · assist 14%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 37% 29% 8% none
Assists 14% 13% 1% none
João Pedro · likely starter46%goal 44% · assist 3%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 44% 33% 12% none
Assists 3% 3% 0% none
Welbeck · probable43%goal 25% · assist 25%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 25% 21% 3% none
Assists 25% 21% 3% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	37%	29%	8%	none
Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	44%	33%	12%	none
Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	25%	21%	3%	none
Assists	25%	21%	3%	none

MUN · anytime attacking return

B.Fernandes · likely starter47%goal 37% · assist 15%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 37% 29% 8% none
Assists 15% 14% 1% none
Mbeumo · likely starter42%goal 37% · assist 8%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 37% 29% 8% none
Assists 8% 8% 0% none
Rashford · probable38%goal 26% · assist 16%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 26% 22% 4% none
Assists 16% 15% 1% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	37%	29%	8%	none
Assists	15%	14%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	37%	29%	8%	none
Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	26%	22%	4%	none
Assists	16%	15%	1%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Chelsea

Pick 1

João Pedro

CHE · Forward · Home

Projected

5.2 pts

Price

£7.7m

Owned

71.7%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

Palmer

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.8 pts

Price

£9.6m

Owned

20.1%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

Rogers

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.0 pts

Price

£7.5m

Owned

25.2%

Fixture

4/5

Man Utd

Pick 1

B.Fernandes

MUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

6.6 pts

Price

£12.0m

Owned

48.4%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

Mbeumo

MUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

4.4 pts

Price

£7.9m

Owned

26.4%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

Šeško

MUN · Forward · Away

Projected

4.2 pts

Price

£7.0m

Owned

1.6%

Fixture

4/5

Also in Gameweek 9

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.