FPList - Aston Villa vs Sunderland

Aston VillavsSunderland

Saturday 21 November at 15:002difficulty for AVL4difficulty for SUN

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.4 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

1.8%

Fixture

2/5

xG: 0.00
xA: 0.01
DefCon: 0%
This season: 14 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.4 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

1.8%

Fixture

2/5

Best Defender

Mukiele

SUN · Defender · Away

Projected

3.0 pts

Price

£5.4m

Owned

1.9%

Fixture

4/5

Best Midfielder

Xhaka

SUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.3 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

3.8%

Fixture

4/5

Best Forward

N.Jackson

AVL · Forward · Home

Projected

2.0 pts

Price

£6.5m

Owned

1.2%

Fixture

2/5

Head to head

AVLSUN

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

AVL 38% · draw 24% · SUN 38%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

High

3.1 expected goals in total

0–118%
2–344%
4+38%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

AVL21%
SUN21%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
AVL	79%	33%	47%	two or more
SUN	79%	33%	46%	two or more

Both to score: 63%

AVL · anytime attacking return

N.Jackson · probable24%goal 8% · assist 18%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 8% 7% 0% none
Assists 18% 16% 2% none
McGinn · probable22%goal 18% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 18% 16% 2% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none
Buendía · probable21%goal 18% · assist 4%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 18% 16% 2% none
Assists 4% 4% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	8%	7%	0%	none
Assists	18%	16%	2%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	18%	16%	2%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	18%	16%	2%	none
Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

SUN · anytime attacking return

E.Le Fée · probable53%goal 42% · assist 19%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 42% 31% 10% none
Assists 19% 17% 2% none
Xhaka · probable24%goal 2% · assist 23%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 2% 2% 0% none
Assists 23% 20% 3% none
Mukiele · probable23%goal 22% · assist 2%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 22% 19% 3% none
Assists 2% 2% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	42%	31%	10%	none
Assists	19%	17%	2%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	2%	2%	0%	none
Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Aston Villa

Pick 1

Suzuki

AVL · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.4 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

1.8%

Fixture

2/5

Pick 2

Mings

AVL · Defender · Home

Projected

2.7 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

0.4%

Fixture

2/5

Pick 3

McGinn

AVL · Midfielder · Home

Projected

2.7 pts

Price

£5.4m

Owned

2.2%

Fixture

2/5

Sunderland

Pick 1

Xhaka

SUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.3 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

3.8%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

Mukiele

SUN · Defender · Away

Projected

3.0 pts

Price

£5.4m

Owned

1.9%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

E.Le Fée

SUN · Midfielder · Away

Projected

2.6 pts

Price

£5.7m

Owned

3.5%

Fixture

4/5

Also in Gameweek 11

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.