Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.4 expected goals in total

• 0–131%
• 2–347%
• 4+22%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• BOU27%
• NFO35%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 48%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

BOU · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Tavernier · probable44%goal 32% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	32%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	17%	16%	2%	none

• Evanilson · probable25%goal 15% · assist 11%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	11%	11%	1%	none

• Silva · probable23%goal 18% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

NFO · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gibbs-White · likely starter48%goal 33% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	33%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

• Ndoye · probable39%goal 24% · assist 20%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	24%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	20%	18%	2%	none

• Igor Jesus · probable37%goal 35% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	35%	28%	7%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none