Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.9 expected goals in total

• 0–122%
• 2–346%
• 4+33%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• CHE24%
• LEE23%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 58%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

CHE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• João Pedro · probable45%goal 42% · assist 5%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	42%	32%	11%	none
  Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

• Rogers · likely starter44%goal 29% · assist 21%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	21%	19%	2%	none

• Welbeck · probable41%goal 0% · assist 41%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	41%	31%	10%	none

LEE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Calvert-Lewin · probable42%goal 41% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	41%	31%	10%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Bogle · probable25%goal 24% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	24%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Tanaka · probable23%goal 21% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none