Top projected return
Strand Larsen
CRY · Forward · Away
Projected
3.7 pts
Price
£6.0m
Owned
0.6%
Fixture
2/5
- xG
- 0.39
- xA
- 0.03
- DefCon
- 2%
- This season
- 12 pts
Top projected return
Strand Larsen
CRY · Forward · Away
Projected
3.7 pts
Price
£6.0m
Owned
0.6%
Fixture
2/5
One name per position, whichever club they play for.
Best Goalkeeper
Benitez
CRY · Goalkeeper · Away
Projected
1.9 pts
Price
£4.5m
Owned
0.1%
Fixture
2/5
Best Defender
Khalaili
CRY · Defender · Away
Projected
3.2 pts
Price
£5.0m
Owned
0.3%
Fixture
2/5
Best Midfielder
Kamada
CRY · Midfielder · Away
Projected
3.5 pts
Price
£5.0m
Owned
0.5%
Fixture
2/5
Best Forward
Strand Larsen
CRY · Forward · Away
Projected
3.7 pts
Price
£6.0m
Owned
0.6%
Fixture
2/5
COVCRY
Mean projected points of the five best midfielders and forwards
Mean DefCon chance across the five most active defenders and midfielders
Highest projected points in the squad for this fixture
Share of the likely eleven with no availability flag
FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.
These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.
A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.
Result projection
COV 36% · draw 21% · CRY 43%
Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.
Match climate
High
3.8 expected goals in total
Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.
Clean sheets
Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.
Teams to score
| Club | ≥1 | Exactly 1 | 2+ | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COV | 84% | 30% | 54% | two or more |
| CRY | 86% | 27% | 59% | two or more |
Both to score: 72%
COV · anytime attacking return
| ≥1 | 1 | 2+ | Likely | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 25% | 22% | 4% | none |
| Assists | 28% | 23% | 4% | none |
| ≥1 | 1 | 2+ | Likely | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 16% | 15% | 1% | none |
| Assists | 2% | 2% | 0% | none |
| ≥1 | 1 | 2+ | Likely | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 11% | 10% | 1% | none |
| Assists | 7% | 7% | 0% | none |
CRY · anytime attacking return
| ≥1 | 1 | 2+ | Likely | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 26% | 22% | 4% | none |
| Assists | 9% | 9% | 0% | none |
| ≥1 | 1 | 2+ | Likely | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 18% | 16% | 2% | none |
| Assists | 6% | 6% | 0% | none |
| ≥1 | 1 | 2+ | Likely | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 11% | 10% | 1% | none |
| Assists | 12% | 11% | 1% | none |
Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.
Pick 1
Thomas
COV · Defender · Home
Projected
2.7 pts
Price
£4.0m
Owned
8.6%
Fixture
3/5
Pick 2
Thomas-Asante
COV · Forward · Home
Projected
2.5 pts
Price
£5.0m
Owned
0.7%
Fixture
3/5
Pick 3
Yirenkyi
COV · Midfielder · Home
Projected
2.4 pts
Price
£4.9m
Owned
0.1%
Fixture
3/5
Pick 1
Strand Larsen
CRY · Forward · Away
Projected
3.7 pts
Price
£6.0m
Owned
0.6%
Fixture
2/5
Pick 2
Kamada
CRY · Midfielder · Away
Projected
3.5 pts
Price
£5.0m
Owned
0.5%
Fixture
2/5
Pick 3
Khalaili
CRY · Defender · Away
Projected
3.2 pts
Price
£5.0m
Owned
0.3%
Fixture
2/5
Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.