Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.8 expected goals in total

• 0–123%
• 2–346%
• 4+31%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• BHA27%
• BRE23%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 57%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

BHA · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• De Cuyper · probable27%goal 22% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

• Gomez · probable27%goal 14% · assist 15%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
  Assists	15%	14%	1%	none

• Groß · probable24%goal 17% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	15%	1%	none
  Assists	9%	8%	0%	none

BRE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Thiago · likely starter43%goal 41% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	41%	31%	10%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Wilson · rotation risk42%goal 29% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	18%	16%	2%	none

• Schade · likely starter35%goal 28% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	28%	24%	4%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	0%	none