Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.5 expected goals in total

• 0–128%
• 2–347%
• 4+25%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• FUL30%
• NEW26%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 52%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

FUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Muniz · rotation risk25%goal 25% · assist 0%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	25%	22%	3%	none
  Assists	0%	0%	0%	none

• Smith Rowe · rotation risk22%goal 17% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	17%	15%	2%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

• Iwobi · probable20%goal 4% · assist 16%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	4%	4%	0%	none
  Assists	16%	15%	1%	none

NEW · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wissa · rotation risk48%goal 47% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	47%	34%	13%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Barnes · probable38%goal 31% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	31%	26%	6%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	0%	none

• J.Murphy · rotation risk27%goal 0% · assist 27%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	27%	23%	4%	none