Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.3 expected goals in total

• 0–116%
• 2–343%
• 4+41%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• EVE28%
• COV13%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 62%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

EVE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Barry · probable33%goal 32% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	32%	26%	6%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Dewsbury-Hall · likely starter30%goal 18% · assist 15%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	15%	13%	1%	none

• Grealish · rotation risk27%goal 4% · assist 24%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	4%	4%	0%	none
  Assists	24%	21%	3%	none

COV · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Awoniyi · rotation risk56%goal 55% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	55%	36%	19%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Hamer · probable20%goal 0% · assist 20%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	20%	18%	2%	none

• Tchaouna · rotation risk14%goal 7% · assist 7%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	7%	7%	0%	none
  Assists	7%	7%	0%	none