Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.9 expected goals in total

• 0–110%
• 2–335%
• 4+56%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• HUL10%
• IPS19%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 73%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

HUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• McBurnie · probable44%goal 40% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	40%	31%	9%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

• Giles · rotation risk10%goal 1% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	1%	1%	0%	none
  Assists	9%	9%	0%	none

• Iroegbunam · rotation risk7%goal 4% · assist 4%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	4%	4%	0%	none
  Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

IPS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Enciso · probable26%goal 16% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	15%	1%	none
  Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

• Fatawu · rotation risk21%goal 1% · assist 20%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	1%	1%	0%	none
  Assists	20%	18%	2%	none

• Lukić · probable19%goal 5% · assist 15%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	5%	5%	0%	none
  Assists	15%	13%	1%	none