Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.6 expected goals in total

• 0–127%
• 2–347%
• 4+26%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• BRE30%
• EVE25%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 52%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

BRE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Thiago · likely starter46%goal 44% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	44%	33%	12%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Anthony · probable41%goal 30% · assist 16%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	16%	14%	1%	none

• O.Dango · probable36%goal 8% · assist 30%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	8%	8%	0%	none
  Assists	30%	25%	5%	none

EVE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Barry · probable57%goal 55% · assist 4%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	55%	36%	19%	none
  Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

• Dewsbury-Hall · likely starter26%goal 15% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	12%	12%	1%	none

• Johnson · probable19%goal 10% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	10%	9%	0%	none
  Assists	10%	10%	1%	none