Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

3.0 expected goals in total

• 0–121%
• 2–345%
• 4+34%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• IPS17%
• BOU30%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 58%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

IPS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Davis · probable36%goal 29% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	0%	none

• Enciso · likely starter36%goal 23% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	2%	none

• Emersonn · probable31%goal 29% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

BOU · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Tavernier · likely starter39%goal 27% · assist 16%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
  Assists	16%	15%	1%	none

• Rayan · likely starter22%goal 15% · assist 8%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	8%	8%	0%	none

• Evanilson · likely starter22%goal 14% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	14%	13%	1%	none
  Assists	9%	8%	0%	none