FPList - Leeds vs Spurs - GW10 FPL picks

LeedsvsSpurs

Saturday 7 November at 12:303difficulty for LEE3difficulty for TOT

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Bogle

LEE · Defender · Home

Projected

5.0 pts

Price

£4.6m

Owned

6.8%

Fixture

3/5

xG: 1.38
xA: 0.08
DefCon: 13%
This season: 42 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Trafford

LEE · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

4.0 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

5.5%

Fixture

3/5

Best Defender

Bogle

LEE · Defender · Home

Projected

5.0 pts

Price

£4.6m

Owned

6.8%

Fixture

3/5

Best Midfielder

Stach

LEE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.2 pts

Price

£6.0m

Owned

2.5%

Fixture

3/5

Best Forward

Calvert-Lewin

LEE · Forward · Home

Projected

3.5 pts

Price

£6.0m

Owned

25.1%

Fixture

3/5

Head to head

LEETOT

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

LEE 39% · draw 27% · TOT 35%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

Medium

2.6 expected goals in total

0–128%
2–347%
4+26%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

LEE29%
TOT27%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
LEE	73%	35%	38%	two or more
TOT	71%	36%	35%	exactly one

Both to score: 52%

LEE · anytime attacking return

Calvert-Lewin · likely starter41%goal 40% · assist 1%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 40% 31% 9% none
Assists 1% 1% 0% none
Bogle · probable22%goal 21% · assist 1%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 21% 19% 2% none
Assists 1% 1% 0% none
Stach · likely starter20%goal 16% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 16% 14% 1% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	40%	31%	9%	none
Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	16%	14%	1%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

TOT · anytime attacking return

Sávio · probable29%goal 12% · assist 19%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 12% 11% 1% none
Assists 19% 17% 2% none
Solanke · probable23%goal 23% · assist 0%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 23% 20% 3% none
Assists 0% 0% 0% none
Van Hecke · likely starter19%goal 12% · assist 8%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 12% 11% 1% none
Assists 8% 7% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	12%	11%	1%	none
Assists	19%	17%	2%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
Assists	0%	0%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	12%	11%	1%	none
Assists	8%	7%	0%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Leeds

Pick 1

Bogle

LEE · Defender · Home

Projected

5.0 pts

Price

£4.6m

Owned

6.8%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Stach

LEE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.2 pts

Price

£6.0m

Owned

2.5%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

Trafford

LEE · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

4.0 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

5.5%

Fixture

3/5

Spurs

Pick 1

Van Hecke

TOT · Defender · Away

Projected

3.6 pts

Price

£4.9m

Owned

6.6%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Van de Ven

TOT · Defender · Away

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

3.8%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

Bentancur

TOT · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

0.2%

Fixture

3/5

Also in Gameweek 10

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.