Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.6 expected goals in total

• 0–127%
• 2–347%
• 4+26%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• NFO32%
• MCI23%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 52%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

NFO · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Gibbs-White · likely starter45%goal 27% · assist 25%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
  Assists	25%	21%	3%	none

• Igor Jesus · probable37%goal 35% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	35%	28%	7%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Ndoye · probable35%goal 22% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	19%	3%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	2%	none

MCI · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Haaland · likely starter60%goal 56% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	56%	36%	20%	none
  Assists	9%	9%	0%	none

• Cherki · likely starter41%goal 15% · assist 30%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	30%	25%	5%	none

• Enzo · probable24%goal 10% · assist 15%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	10%	10%	1%	none
  Assists	15%	14%	1%	none