Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.7 expected goals in total

• 0–125%
• 2–347%
• 4+29%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• MCI36%
• BHA18%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 52%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

MCI · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Haaland · likely starter55%goal 49% · assist 13%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	49%	34%	14%	none
  Assists	13%	12%	1%	none

• Cherki · probable45%goal 16% · assist 34%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	15%	1%	none
  Assists	34%	28%	7%	none

• Enzo · likely starter39%goal 21% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

BHA · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• De Cuyper · probable30%goal 25% · assist 7%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	25%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	7%	7%	0%	none

• Gomez · probable30%goal 16% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	14%	1%	none
  Assists	17%	15%	2%	none

• Groß · probable27%goal 19% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	10%	9%	1%	none