Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.8 expected goals in total

• 0–123%
• 2–346%
• 4+31%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• NEW26%
• EVE23%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 57%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

NEW · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wissa · rotation risk46%goal 45% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	45%	33%	12%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Barnes · probable36%goal 30% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	9%	9%	0%	none

• J.Murphy · rotation risk26%goal 0% · assist 26%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	26%	22%	4%	none

EVE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Barry · probable30%goal 29% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Dewsbury-Hall · probable28%goal 16% · assist 14%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	16%	15%	1%	none
  Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

• Grealish · rotation risk26%goal 4% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	4%	4%	0%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none