Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.9 expected goals in total

• 0–122%
• 2–346%
• 4+32%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• ARS37%
• EVE15%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 53%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

ARS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Havertz · rotation risk44%goal 41% · assist 6%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	41%	31%	10%	none
  Assists	6%	6%	0%	none

• Gyökeres · probable40%goal 23% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none

• Martinelli · rotation risk35%goal 19% · assist 19%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	19%	17%	2%	none

EVE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Beto · rotation risk39%goal 39% · assist 0%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	39%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	0%	0%	0%	none

• Ndiaye · probable28%goal 13% · assist 17%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	13%	12%	1%	none
  Assists	17%	16%	2%	none

• Barry · probable28%goal 24% · assist 5%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	24%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	5%	5%	0%	none