FPList - Liverpool vs Brighton

LiverpoolvsBrighton

Saturday 24 October at 14:002difficulty for LIV4difficulty for BHA

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Gakpo

LIV · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.7 pts

Price

£7.0m

Owned

6.5%

Fixture

2/5

xG: 0.30
xA: 0.15
DefCon: 4%
Last season: 12 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

A.Becker

LIV · Goalkeeper · Home

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

3.8%

Fixture

2/5

Best Defender

Virgil

LIV · Defender · Home

Projected

4.1 pts

Price

£6.5m

Owned

19.5%

Fixture

2/5

Best Midfielder

Gakpo

LIV · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.7 pts

Price

£7.0m

Owned

6.5%

Fixture

2/5

Best Forward

Isak

LIV · Forward · Home

Projected

4.5 pts

Price

£9.0m

Owned

16.4%

Fixture

2/5

Head to head

LIVBHA

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

LIV 48% · draw 26% · BHA 26%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

Medium

2.5 expected goals in total

0–128%
2–347%
4+25%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

LIV36%
BHA22%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
LIV	78%	33%	44%	two or more
BHA	64%	37%	27%	exactly one

Both to score: 50%

LIV · anytime attacking return

Gakpo · probable37%goal 27% · assist 14%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 27% 23% 4% none
Assists 14% 13% 1% none
Ngumoha · rotation risk33%goal 23% · assist 13%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 23% 20% 3% none
Assists 13% 12% 1% none
Isak · probable31%goal 31% · assist 0%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 31% 25% 5% none
Assists 0% 0% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	27%	23%	4%	none
Assists	14%	13%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	23%	20%	3%	none
Assists	13%	12%	1%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	31%	25%	5%	none
Assists	0%	0%	0%	none

BHA · anytime attacking return

De Cuyper · rotation risk29%goal 26% · assist 4%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 26% 22% 4% none
Assists 4% 4% 0% none
Gomez · probable29%goal 9% · assist 22%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 9% 9% 0% none
Assists 22% 19% 3% none
Groß · rotation risk27%goal 0% · assist 27%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 0% 0% 0% none
Assists 27% 23% 4% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	26%	22%	4%	none
Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	9%	9%	0%	none
Assists	22%	19%	3%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
Assists	27%	23%	4%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Liverpool

Pick 1

Gakpo

LIV · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.7 pts

Price

£7.0m

Owned

6.5%

Fixture

2/5

Pick 2

Szoboszlai

LIV · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.5 pts

Price

£7.0m

Owned

43.3%

Fixture

2/5

Pick 3

Isak

LIV · Forward · Home

Projected

4.5 pts

Price

£9.0m

Owned

16.4%

Fixture

2/5

Brighton

Pick 1

De Cuyper

BHA · Defender · Away

Projected

3.4 pts

Price

£4.6m

Owned

8.4%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

Kostoulas

BHA · Forward · Away

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

0.2%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

Groß

BHA · Midfielder · Away

Projected

3.0 pts

Price

£5.5m

Owned

12.8%

Fixture

4/5

Also in Gameweek 8

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.