Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.2 expected goals in total

• 0–117%
• 2–343%
• 4+40%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• IPS15%
• NFO28%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 62%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

IPS · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Enciso · rotation risk21%goal 10% · assist 13%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	10%	9%	0%	none
  Assists	13%	12%	1%	none

• Lukić · rotation risk19%goal 0% · assist 19%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	19%	17%	2%	none

• Fatawu · rotation risk18%goal 0% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	18%	16%	2%	none

NFO · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wood · rotation risk34%goal 32% · assist 3%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	32%	26%	6%	none
  Assists	3%	3%	0%	none

• Gibbs-White · likely starter33%goal 24% · assist 12%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	24%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	12%	11%	1%	none

• Delap · rotation risk32%goal 18% · assist 18%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	16%	2%	none
  Assists	18%	16%	2%	none