Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.9 expected goals in total

• 0–121%
• 2–345%
• 4+34%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• AVL20%
• MCI26%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 59%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

AVL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Watkins · probable42%goal 24% · assist 24%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	24%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	24%	21%	3%	none

• Garnacho · rotation risk42%goal 24% · assist 24%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	24%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	24%	21%	3%	none

• Bailey · rotation risk34%goal 19% · assist 19%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	19%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	19%	17%	2%	none

MCI · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Haaland · likely starter60%goal 59% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	59%	37%	22%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

• Cherki · rotation risk51%goal 0% · assist 51%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	51%	35%	16%	none

• Foden · probable36%goal 10% · assist 29%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	10%	9%	1%	none
  Assists	29%	24%	5%	none