FPList - Chelsea vs Spurs

ChelseavsSpurs

Saturday 24 October at 16:303difficulty for CHE4difficulty for TOT

Best pick of the match

Top projected return

Palmer

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.0 pts

Price

£9.7m

Owned

27%

Fixture

3/5

xG: 1.31
xA: 0.79
DefCon: 7%
This season: 28 pts

Best by position, across both squads

One name per position, whichever club they play for.

Best Goalkeeper

Kinsky

TOT · Goalkeeper · Away

Projected

2.7 pts

Price

£4.5m

Owned

18.2%

Fixture

4/5

Best Defender

Van de Ven

TOT · Defender · Away

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

Fixture

4/5

Best Midfielder

Palmer

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.0 pts

Price

£9.7m

Owned

27%

Fixture

3/5

Best Forward

João Pedro

CHE · Forward · Home

Projected

4.4 pts

Price

£7.8m

Owned

68.5%

Fixture

3/5

Doubtful · 75% chance

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Head to head

CHETOT

Attacking threat
Defensive contribution
Best single return
Squad fitness

Match sheet

Every fixture this gameweek →

FPL projection from our fixture model — the same numbers player cards use, scored in public. Goals by the two sides are treated as independent. That flatters both-to-score in open games and understates it in sieges.Two Poissons: each club's expected goals conceded per 90, stretched by FPL's own fixture difficulty, then every 0-6 scoreline added up.

These are probabilities from our model, not a confirmation and not a betting tip. Football is noisy. We will be wrong. We score ourselves in public.

A full coupon can list 200+ lines for one match. Most of those are the same few questions repeated with extra knobs. We only answer the questions our data can support: result, clean sheets, who scores, who assists, and how many goals the game is likely to contain.

Result projection

CHE 37% · draw 23% · TOT 39%

Every scoreline in the 0-6 grid, summed into home / draw / away.

Match climate

High

3.2 expected goals in total

0–117%
2–343%
4+41%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheets

CHE19%
TOT20%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to score

Club	≥1	Exactly 1	2+	Likely
CHE	80%	32%	47%	two or more
TOT	81%	32%	49%	two or more

Both to score: 64%

CHE · anytime attacking return

João Pedro · probable45%goal 42% · assist 5%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 42% 32% 11% none
Assists 5% 5% 0% none
Rogers · likely starter44%goal 29% · assist 21%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 29% 24% 5% none
Assists 21% 19% 2% none
Welbeck · probable41%goal 0% · assist 41%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 0% 0% 0% none
Assists 41% 31% 10% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	42%	32%	11%	none
Assists	5%	5%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	29%	24%	5%	none
Assists	21%	19%	2%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
Assists	41%	31%	10%	none

TOT · anytime attacking return

Sávio · probable29%goal 6% · assist 24%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 6% 6% 0% none
Assists 24% 21% 3% none
Solanke · probable24%goal 24% · assist 1%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 24% 21% 3% none
Assists 1% 1% 0% none
Pedro Porro · probable21%goal 15% · assist 7%
≥1 1 2+ Likely
Goals 15% 14% 1% none
Assists 7% 7% 0% none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	6%	6%	0%	none
Assists	24%	21%	3%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	24%	21%	3%	none
Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

	≥1	1	2+	Likely
Goals	15%	14%	1%	none
Assists	7%	7%	0%	none

• Probabilities, not odds — same λ as the player cards.
• Player count splits use that model; only fixture-level numbers are scored publicly today.

Top 3 from each squad

Ranked by projected points for this fixture, so the same player can rate differently in a different week.

Chelsea

Pick 1

Palmer

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

5.0 pts

Price

£9.7m

Owned

27%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 2

Rogers

CHE · Midfielder · Home

Projected

4.7 pts

Price

£7.7m

Owned

40%

Fixture

3/5

Pick 3

João Pedro

CHE · Forward · Home

Projected

4.4 pts

Price

£7.8m

Owned

68.5%

Fixture

3/5

Doubtful · 75% chance

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Spurs

Pick 1

Van de Ven

TOT · Defender · Away

Projected

3.2 pts

Price

£5.0m

Owned

Fixture

4/5

Pick 2

Van Hecke

TOT · Defender · Away

Projected

3.1 pts

Price

£4.9m

Owned

6.7%

Fixture

4/5

Pick 3

Solanke

TOT · Forward · Away

Projected

2.8 pts

Price

£5.8m

Owned

0.8%

Fixture

4/5

Also in Gameweek 8

Projections are ours, from deterministic code over public FPL data, and are re-derived against this specific fixture's difficulty - the same player will rate differently in an easier week. Not a guarantee. FPList is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.